Retrospective forecasting test of a statistical physics model for earthquakes in sichuan-yunnan region
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Jiang ChangSheng1; Wu ZhongLiang1,2 |
| 刊名 | Science in china series d-earth sciences
 |
| 出版日期 | 2008-10-01 |
| 卷号 | 51期号:10页码:1401-1410 |
| 关键词 | Pattern informatics Statistical physics Intermediate-term earthquake forecast Roc test |
| ISSN号 | 1006-9313 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11430-008-0112-6 |
| 通讯作者 | Wu zhongliang(wuzhl@gucas.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Pattern informatics (pi) model is one of the recently developed predictive models of earthquake physics based on the statistical mechanics of complex systems. in this paper, retrospective forecast test of the pi model was conducted for the earthquakes in sichuan-yunnan region since 1988, exploring the possibility to apply this model to the estimation of time-dependent seismic hazard in continental china. regional earthquake catalogue down to m(l)3.0 from 1970 to 2007 was used. the 'target magnitude' for the forecast test was m(s)5.5. fifteen-year long 'sliding time window' was used in the pi calculation, with,anomaly training time window' being 5 years and 'forecast time window' being 5 years, respectively. receiver operating characteristic (roc) test was conducted for the evaluation of the forecast result, showing that the pi forecast outperforms not only random guess but also the simple number counting approach based on the clustering hypothesis of earthquakes (the ri forecast). if the 'forecast time window' was shortened to 3 years and 1 year, respectively, the forecast capability of the pi model decreased significantly, albeit outperformed random forecast. for the one year 'forecast time window', the pi result was almost comparable to the ri result, indicating that clustering properties play a more important role at this time scale. |
| WOS关键词 | PATTERN INFORMATICS ; THRESHOLD SYSTEMS ; CRITICAL-POINT ; FAULT SYSTEMS ; DYNAMICS ; ACTIVATION ; RELM |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology |
| WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000259790100004 |
| 出版者 | SCIENCE PRESS |
| URI标识 | http://www.irgrid.ac.cn/handle/1471x/2388350 |
| 专题 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 通讯作者 | Wu ZhongLiang |
| 作者单位 | 1.China Earthquake Adm, Inst Geophys, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Coll Earth Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jiang ChangSheng,Wu ZhongLiang. Retrospective forecasting test of a statistical physics model for earthquakes in sichuan-yunnan region[J]. Science in china series d-earth sciences,2008,51(10):1401-1410. |
| APA | Jiang ChangSheng,&Wu ZhongLiang.(2008).Retrospective forecasting test of a statistical physics model for earthquakes in sichuan-yunnan region.Science in china series d-earth sciences,51(10),1401-1410. |
| MLA | Jiang ChangSheng,et al."Retrospective forecasting test of a statistical physics model for earthquakes in sichuan-yunnan region".Science in china series d-earth sciences 51.10(2008):1401-1410. |
入库方式： iSwitch采集
来源：中国科学院大学
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。