Non-stationary thermal time accumulation reduces the predictability of climate change effects on agriculture
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang, Tianyi1,3; Zhu, Jiang2; Yang, Xiaoguang4 |
| 刊名 | Agricultural and forest meteorology
 |
| 出版日期 | 2008-09-03 |
| 卷号 | 148期号:10页码:1412-1418 |
| 关键词 | Phenology Lowland rice Thermal time accumulation Observed trend Model deficiency Climate change |
| ISSN号 | 0168-1923 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.agrformet.2008.04.007 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, tianyi(zhangty@mail.iap.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Current modeling studies on the impacts of climate change on agriculture widely assume that thermal time accumulation of crops during the growing season remains constant under various climate conditions. however, in this study, a 20-year single rice variety, experimental dataset indicates that the thermal time accumulation for the entire growing season is not constant. as a result, a crop model based on constant thermal time accumulation significantly underestimates the observed phenological trend exhibited over the two decades of research-despite comparably accurate simulations of short periods. this deviation can result in misleading yield simulations, whereas the model simulations, using observed phenology data, show a similar yield trend as the observation. this study casts serious doubt on the assumptions of constant thermal time accumulation made in previous modeling studies, and, moreover, it highlights the critical requirements needed to improve phenology simulations on a larger scale so that predictions of the eventual yield trends due to climate change can more accurately reflect the results of yield trends in reality. (c) 2008 elsevier b.v. all rights reserved. |
| WOS关键词 | PHOTOTHERMAL RESPONSES ; LOWLAND RICE ; TEMPERATURE ; SIMULATION ; MODEL ; ADAPTATION ; AUSTRALIA ; OPTIONS ; SYSTEMS ; IMPACT |
| WOS研究方向 | Agriculture ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Agronomy ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000259683600003 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV |
| URI标识 | http://www.irgrid.ac.cn/handle/1471x/2393282 |
| 专题 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Tianyi |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Int Ctr Climate & Environm Sci, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LAPC, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 4.China Agr Univ, Beijing 100094, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Tianyi,Zhu, Jiang,Yang, Xiaoguang. Non-stationary thermal time accumulation reduces the predictability of climate change effects on agriculture[J]. Agricultural and forest meteorology,2008,148(10):1412-1418. |
| APA | Zhang, Tianyi,Zhu, Jiang,&Yang, Xiaoguang.(2008).Non-stationary thermal time accumulation reduces the predictability of climate change effects on agriculture.Agricultural and forest meteorology,148(10),1412-1418. |
| MLA | Zhang, Tianyi,et al."Non-stationary thermal time accumulation reduces the predictability of climate change effects on agriculture".Agricultural and forest meteorology 148.10(2008):1412-1418. |
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来源：中国科学院大学
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