A method for identifying the sensitive areas in targeted observations for tropical cyclone prediction: conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Mu, Mu1; Zhou, Feifan1,2,3; Wang, Hongli1,3 |
| 刊名 | Monthly weather review
 |
| 出版日期 | 2009-05-01 |
| 卷号 | 137期号:5页码:1623-1639 |
| ISSN号 | 0027-0644 |
| DOI | 10.1175/2008mwr2640.1 |
| 通讯作者 | Mu, mu(mumu@lasg.iap.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (cnop), which is a natural extension of the linear singular vector into the nonlinear regime, is proposed in this study for the determination of sensitive areas in adaptive observations for tropical cyclone prediction. three tropical cyclone cases, mindulle (2004), meari (2004), and matsa (2005), are investigated. using the metrics of kinetic and dry energies, cnops and the first singular vectors (fsvs) are obtained over a 24-h optimization interval. their spatial structures, their energies, and their nonlinear evolutions as well as the induced humidity changes are compared. a series of sensitivity experiments are designed to find out what benefit can be obtained by reductions of cnop-type errors versus fsv-type errors. it is found that the structures of cnops may differ much from those of fsvs depending on the constraint, metric, and the basic state. the cnop-type errors have larger impact on the forecasts in the verification area as well as the tropical cyclones than the fsv-types errors. the results of sensitivity experiments indicate that reductions of cnop-type errors in the initial states provide more benefits than reductions of fsv-type errors. these results suggest that it is worthwhile to use cnop as a method to identify the sensitive areas in adaptive observation for tropical cyclone prediction. |
| WOS关键词 | FINITE-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS ; STORM RECONNAISSANCE PROGRAM ; WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC ; SINGULAR VECTORS ; ADAPTIVE OBSERVATIONS ; DROPWINDSONDE OBSERVATIONS ; ENSEMBLE PREDICTION ; MESOSCALE MODEL ; ANALYSIS ERROR ; KALMAN FILTER |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000266495000009 |
| 出版者 | AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC |
| URI标识 | http://www.irgrid.ac.cn/handle/1471x/2395864 |
| 专题 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 通讯作者 | Mu, Mu |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Lab Cloud Precipitat Phys & Severe Storms, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mu, Mu,Zhou, Feifan,Wang, Hongli. A method for identifying the sensitive areas in targeted observations for tropical cyclone prediction: conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation[J]. Monthly weather review,2009,137(5):1623-1639. |
| APA | Mu, Mu,Zhou, Feifan,&Wang, Hongli.(2009).A method for identifying the sensitive areas in targeted observations for tropical cyclone prediction: conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation.Monthly weather review,137(5),1623-1639. |
| MLA | Mu, Mu,et al."A method for identifying the sensitive areas in targeted observations for tropical cyclone prediction: conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation".Monthly weather review 137.5(2009):1623-1639. |
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来源：中国科学院大学
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