How the "best" models project the future precipitation change in china
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Chen Huopo1,2,3; Sun Jianqi1,2 |
| 刊名 | Advances in atmospheric sciences
 |
| 出版日期 | 2009-07-01 |
| 卷号 | 26期号:4页码:773-782 |
| 关键词 | Projection Summer precipitation "best" models Ensemble |
| ISSN号 | 0256-1530 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s00376-009-8211-7 |
| 通讯作者 | Chen huopo(chenhuopo@mail.iap.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Projected changes in summer precipitation characteristics in china during the 21st century are assessed using the monthly precipitation outputs of the ensemble of three "best" models under the special report on emissions scenarios (sres) a1b, a2, and b1 scenarios. the excellent reproducibility of the models both in spatial and temporal patterns for the precipitation in china makes the projected summer precipitation change more believable for the future 100 years. all the three scenarios experiments indicate a consistent enhancement of summer precipitation in china in the 21st century. however, the projected summer precipitation in china demonstrates large variability between sub-regions. the projected increase in precipitation in south china is significant and persistent, as well as in north china. meanwhile, in the early period of the 21st century, the region of northeast china is projected to be much drier than the present. but, this situation changes and the precipitation intensifies later, with a precipitation anomaly increase of 12.4%-20.4% at the end of the 21st century. the region of the xinjiang province probably undergoes a drying trend in the future 100 years, and is projected to decrease by 1.7%-3.6% at the end of the 21st century. there is no significant long-term change of the projected summer precipitation in the lower reaches of the yangtze river valley. a high level of agreement of the ensemble of the regional precipitation change in some parts of china is found across scenarios but smaller changes are projected for the b1 scenario and slightly larger changes for the a2 scenario. |
| WOS关键词 | ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ; CLIMATE-CHANGE TREND ; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; 21ST-CENTURY ; CIRCULATION ; SIMULATIONS ; SCENARIOS ; RAIN ; A2 |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000267773800017 |
| 出版者 | SCIENCE PRESS |
| URI标识 | http://www.irgrid.ac.cn/handle/1471x/2401769 |
| 专题 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 通讯作者 | Chen Huopo |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Nansen Zhu Int Res Ctr, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, CCRC, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chen Huopo,Sun Jianqi. How the "best" models project the future precipitation change in china[J]. Advances in atmospheric sciences,2009,26(4):773-782. |
| APA | Chen Huopo,&Sun Jianqi.(2009).How the "best" models project the future precipitation change in china.Advances in atmospheric sciences,26(4),773-782. |
| MLA | Chen Huopo,et al."How the "best" models project the future precipitation change in china".Advances in atmospheric sciences 26.4(2009):773-782. |
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来源：中国科学院大学
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