Forecasting the summer rainfall in north china using the year-to-year increment approach
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Fan Ke1; Lin MeiJing1,2; Gao YuZhong3 |
| 刊名 | Science in china series d-earth sciences
 |
| 出版日期 | 2009-04-01 |
| 卷号 | 52期号:4页码:532-539 |
| 关键词 | Annual increment North china precipitation prediction Prediction skill |
| ISSN号 | 1006-9313 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11430-009-0040-0 |
| 通讯作者 | Fan ke(fanke@mail.iap.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in north china in july-august (ja) is proposed. dy is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). nr denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over north china in ja. after analyzing the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the dy of nr, five key predictors for the dy of nr have been identified. the prediction model for the dy of nr is established by using multi-linear regression method and the nr is obtained (the current forecasted dy of nr added to the preceding observed nr). the prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed dy of nr throughout period 1965-1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over north china. the prediction model makes a hindcast for 2000-2007, with an average relative root mean square error of 21% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over north china. the model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over north china during 1965-2006. because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%-70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over north china. thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation. |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE ; MONSOON ; MODEL ; ENSO |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology |
| WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000265046100011 |
| 出版者 | SCIENCE PRESS |
| URI标识 | http://www.irgrid.ac.cn/handle/1471x/2403595 |
| 专题 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 通讯作者 | Fan Ke |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Nansen Zhu Int Res Ctr, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Heilongjiang Meteorol Adm, Harbin 150030, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fan Ke,Lin MeiJing,Gao YuZhong. Forecasting the summer rainfall in north china using the year-to-year increment approach[J]. Science in china series d-earth sciences,2009,52(4):532-539. |
| APA | Fan Ke,Lin MeiJing,&Gao YuZhong.(2009).Forecasting the summer rainfall in north china using the year-to-year increment approach.Science in china series d-earth sciences,52(4),532-539. |
| MLA | Fan Ke,et al."Forecasting the summer rainfall in north china using the year-to-year increment approach".Science in china series d-earth sciences 52.4(2009):532-539. |
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来源：中国科学院大学
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