An analysis of mid-summer rainfall occurrence in eastern china and its relationship with large-scale warming using generalized linear models
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, Yi1,3; Yan, Zhongwei1; Chandler, Richard E.2 |
| 刊名 | International journal of climatology
 |
| 出版日期 | 2010-10-01 |
| 卷号 | 30期号:12页码:1826-1834 |
| 关键词 | Generalised linear model Daily rainfall occurrence Temperature Dry and wet spell Large-scale warming Eastern china |
| ISSN号 | 0899-8418 |
| DOI | 10.1002/joc.2018 |
| 通讯作者 | Yan, zhongwei(yzw@tea.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Daily rainfall occurrence in mid-summer (july and august) in eastern china was analyzed using binomial generalized linear models based on observations at 303 stations during 1961-2007. the models include an intraseasonal variation, previous days' rainfall to represent the markov chain structure of daily rainfall occurrence, and the south north thermal gradient in eastern china, expressed by a zonal mean temperature difference in the region. to represent a large-scale climate background. the zonal temperature difference between south and north china exhibits a strong effect on the regional pattern of rainfall occurrence at an inter-annual timescale. a weakened thermal gradient in association with large-scale warming can thus be linked with more frequent precipitation in southern china but less in northern china during the last few decades. the zonal temperature difference was also found to modulate the local autocorrelation of rainfall occurrence. in particular. a weakened thermal gradient (1 degrees reduction) leads to an increase of about 10% in the probability of rain following a dry day in southern china. but a decrease of more than 10% in northern china. consequently, current large-scale warming and hence a decreased zonal temperature difference in eastern china has prolonged (shortened) the duration of dry spells in northern (southern) china by about 20% (15%). copyright (c) 2009 royal meteorological society |
| WOS关键词 | PRECIPITATION ; CLIMATE ; TRENDS |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000283201300008 |
| 出版者 | JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD |
| URI标识 | http://www.irgrid.ac.cn/handle/1471x/2407583 |
| 专题 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 通讯作者 | Yan, Zhongwei |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Res Temperate E Asia, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.UCL, Dept Stat Sci, London WC1E 6BT, England 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Yi,Yan, Zhongwei,Chandler, Richard E.. An analysis of mid-summer rainfall occurrence in eastern china and its relationship with large-scale warming using generalized linear models[J]. International journal of climatology,2010,30(12):1826-1834. |
| APA | Wang, Yi,Yan, Zhongwei,&Chandler, Richard E..(2010).An analysis of mid-summer rainfall occurrence in eastern china and its relationship with large-scale warming using generalized linear models.International journal of climatology,30(12),1826-1834. |
| MLA | Wang, Yi,et al."An analysis of mid-summer rainfall occurrence in eastern china and its relationship with large-scale warming using generalized linear models".International journal of climatology 30.12(2010):1826-1834. |
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来源：中国科学院大学
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