Analysis study on perturbation energy and predictability of heavy precipitation in south china
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhu Benlu1,3; Lin Wantao1; Zhang Yun2 |
| 刊名 | Advances in atmospheric sciences
 |
| 出版日期 | 2010-03-01 |
| 卷号 | 27期号:2页码:382-392 |
| 关键词 | Initial perturbation Error growth Dte Predictability |
| ISSN号 | 0256-1530 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s00376-009-8164-x |
| 通讯作者 | Lin wantao(linwt@mail.iap.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | The aremv2.3 mesoscale numerical model is used to explore storm processes in south china during the pre-rainy season in 2006 by imposing perturbations on the initial fields of physical variables (temperature, humidity, and wind fields). sensitivity experiments are performed to examine the impacts of initial uncertainties on precipitation, on the error growth, and on the predictability of mesoscale precipitation in south china. the primary conclusion is that inherent initial condition uncertainties can significantly limit the predictability of storm. the 24-h accumulated precipitation is most sensitive to temperature perturbations. larger-amplitude initial uncertainties generally lead to larger perturbation energies than those with smaller amplitude, but these kinds of differences decrease with time monotonically so the mechanism for the growth of perturbation energy is nonlinear. the power spectra of precipitation differences indicate that predictability increases with accumulated time. this also indicates the difficulties faced for short-term, small-scale precipitation forecasting. |
| WOS关键词 | MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY ; CONVECTION |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000274542800016 |
| 出版者 | SCIENCE PRESS |
| URI标识 | http://www.irgrid.ac.cn/handle/1471x/2412123 |
| 专题 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 通讯作者 | Lin Wantao |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher & Geophys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 2.PLA Univ Sci & Technol, Inst Meteorol, Nanjing 211101, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhu Benlu,Lin Wantao,Zhang Yun. Analysis study on perturbation energy and predictability of heavy precipitation in south china[J]. Advances in atmospheric sciences,2010,27(2):382-392. |
| APA | Zhu Benlu,Lin Wantao,&Zhang Yun.(2010).Analysis study on perturbation energy and predictability of heavy precipitation in south china.Advances in atmospheric sciences,27(2),382-392. |
| MLA | Zhu Benlu,et al."Analysis study on perturbation energy and predictability of heavy precipitation in south china".Advances in atmospheric sciences 27.2(2010):382-392. |
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来源：中国科学院大学
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