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Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid
Relative model score: a scoring rule for evaluating ensemble simulations with application to microbial soil respiration modeling

文献类型:期刊论文

作者Elshall, AS (Elshall, Ahmed S.)1,2,9; Ye, M (Ye, Ming)2,3,4; Pei, YZ (Pei, Yongzhen)4; Zhang, F (Zhang, Fan)5; Niu, GY (Niu, Guo-Yue)6,7; Barron-Gafford, GA (Barron-Gafford, Greg A.)6,8
刊名STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
出版日期2018-12-01
卷号32期号:10页码:2809-2819
ISSN号1436-3240
关键词Thermodynamic Integration Marginal Likelihood Decomposition Uncertainty Multimodel Prediction Distributions Reliability Mechanisms Selection
DOI10.1007/s00477-018-1592-3
英文摘要

This paper defines a new scoring rule, namely relative model score (RMS), for evaluating ensemble simulations of environmental models. RMS implicitly incorporates the measures of ensemble mean accuracy, prediction interval precision, and prediction interval reliability for evaluating the overall model predictive performance. RMS is numerically evaluated from the probability density functions of ensemble simulations given by individual models or several models via model averaging. We demonstrate the advantages of using RMS through an example of soil respiration modeling. The example considers two alternative models with different fidelity, and for each model Bayesian inverse modeling is conducted using two different likelihood functions. This gives four single-model ensembles of model simulations. For each likelihood function, Bayesian model averaging is applied to the ensemble simulations of the two models, resulting in two multi-model prediction ensembles. Predictive performance for these ensembles is evaluated using various scoring rules. Results show that RMS outperforms the commonly used scoring rules of log-score, pseudo Bayes factor based on Bayesian model evidence (BME), and continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). RMS avoids the problem of rounding error specific to log-score. Being applicable to any likelihood functions, RMS has broader applicability than BME that is only applicable to the same likelihood function of multiple models. By directly considering the relative score of candidate models at each cross-validation datum, RMS results in more plausible model ranking than CRPS. Therefore, RMS is considered as a robust scoring rule for evaluating predictive performance of single-model and multi-model prediction ensembles.

学科主题地理学
WOS研究方向Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources
语种英语
出版者SPRINGER
WOS记录号WOS:000446064000003
源URL[http://ir.itpcas.ac.cn/handle/131C11/8535]  
专题青藏高原研究所_图书馆
通讯作者Ye, M (Ye, Ming)
作者单位1.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Water Resources Res Ctr, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA.
2.Florida State Univ, Dept Comp Sci, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA;
3.Florida State Univ, Dept Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA;
4.Tianjin Polytech Univ, Sch Comp Sci & Software Engn, Tianjin 300387, Peoples R China;
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Key Lab Tibetan Environm Changes & Land Surface P, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China;
6.Univ Arizona, Biosphere 2, Tucson, AZ USA;
7.Univ Arizona, Dept Hydrol & Water Resources, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA;
8.Univ Arizona, Sch Geog & Dev, Tucson, AZ USA;
9.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Geol & Geophys, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA;
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Elshall, AS ,Ye, M ,Pei, YZ ,et al. Relative model score: a scoring rule for evaluating ensemble simulations with application to microbial soil respiration modeling[J]. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,2018,32(10):2809-2819.
APA Elshall, AS ,Ye, M ,Pei, YZ ,Zhang, F ,Niu, GY ,&Barron-Gafford, GA .(2018).Relative model score: a scoring rule for evaluating ensemble simulations with application to microbial soil respiration modeling.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,32(10),2809-2819.
MLA Elshall, AS ,et al."Relative model score: a scoring rule for evaluating ensemble simulations with application to microbial soil respiration modeling".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT 32.10(2018):2809-2819.

入库方式: OAI收割

来源:青藏高原研究所

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