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China's cement demand and CO2 emissions toward 2030: from the perspective of socioeconomic, technology and population

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Wei, Junxiao1; Cen, Kuang1; Geng, Yuanbo2
刊名ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH
出版日期2019-03-01
卷号26期号:7页码:6409-6423
ISSN号0944-1344
关键词Cement CO2 emission Per capita GDP Population size Urbanization rate Fixed assets investment Capacity utilization rate
DOI10.1007/s11356-018-04081-2
通讯作者Wei, Junxiao(3001160054@cugb.edu.cn) ; Cen, Kuang(cenkuang@cugb.edu.cn)
英文摘要China is the largest cement producer and carbon dioxide (CO2) emitter in the world. The country has attracted too much attention in calculating and comparing its CO2 emissions. However, as the second largest CO2 emitter after the fire power industry, China's long-term cement demand and cement-related CO2 emission projections were not fully studied. The Chinese government, however, committed that by 2020 and 2030, China's per capita GDP of CO2 emissions would be lower than that in 2005 by 40-45% and 60-65%, respectively. In this paper, China's cement demand in 2030 was projected based on the population size, urbanization rate, fixed assets investment, and per capita GDP. Furthermore, decoupling study in China's cement industry was also involved based on the GDP and CO2 emissions during 2001-2015. We also used the diffusion rate of 12 types of CO2 reduction measures and two changed scenarios of clinker-to-cement ratio, to project the cement CO2 emission factors toward 2030 after determining the accounting scope. Meanwhile, the CO2 emissions of China's cement industry through 2030 were projected naturally. The results showed that China's cement output in 2030 will be approximately 2000, 1650, and 937 Mt. based on the fixed assets investment, urbanization rate, and per capita GDP respectively. The projected two scenarios cement CO2 emission factors were resp. 407.83 and 390.02kg CO2/t of cement which were 42.6 and 45.1% lower than that in 2005. The cement CO2 emissions were projected to be in the range of 366 to 818 Mt. in 2030. Additionally, China's total cement output value has been decoupling from cement CO2 emissions from 2012, which is mainly attributed to eliminating backward capacity, reducing excess capacity or the declining cement output. And decoupling economic from China's cement CO2 emissions may change to be strong or weak decoupling in the near future. As cement production is one of the factors effecting cement CO2 emissions, the most important measure for controlling cement CO2 emissions is a reasonable capacity utilization rate. It is therefore important to control the growth of cement CO2 emissions by regulating the capacity utilization rate within a reasonable range. Eliminating backward capacity, removing excess capacity, controlling new capacity, staggered production, and the going global of cement equipment can have great impacts in controlling the total amount of cement output and CO2 emissions.
WOS关键词ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT ; SHANDONG PROVINCE ; INDUSTRY ; REDUCTION ; OPPORTUNITIES ; MITIGATION ; CONSUMPTION ; POTENTIALS ; PROJECTION ; SCENARIOS
资助项目Strategic Priority Research Program-Climate Chang: Carbon Budget and Related Issues of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA05010400]
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种英语
出版者SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
WOS记录号WOS:000462457500015
资助机构Strategic Priority Research Program-Climate Chang: Carbon Budget and Related Issues of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/48619]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Wei, Junxiao; Cen, Kuang
作者单位1.China Univ Geosci Beijing, Sch Earth Sci & Resources, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resource Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Wei, Junxiao,Cen, Kuang,Geng, Yuanbo. China's cement demand and CO2 emissions toward 2030: from the perspective of socioeconomic, technology and population[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH,2019,26(7):6409-6423.
APA Wei, Junxiao,Cen, Kuang,&Geng, Yuanbo.(2019).China's cement demand and CO2 emissions toward 2030: from the perspective of socioeconomic, technology and population.ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH,26(7),6409-6423.
MLA Wei, Junxiao,et al."China's cement demand and CO2 emissions toward 2030: from the perspective of socioeconomic, technology and population".ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH 26.7(2019):6409-6423.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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