Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C above pre-industrial warming
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Liu, Bing1; Martre, Pierre2; Ewert, Frank3,4; Porter, John R.5,6,7; Challinor, Andy J.8,9; Mueller, Christoph10,11; Ruane, Alex C.12; Waha, Katharina13; Thorburn, Peter J.13; Aggarwal, Pramod K.14 |
| 刊名 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2019-04-01 |
| 卷号 | 25期号:4页码:1428-1444 |
| ISSN号 | 1354-1013 |
| 关键词 | 1.5 degrees C warming climate change extreme low yields food security model ensemble wheat production |
| DOI | 10.1111/gcb.14542 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhu, Yan(yanzhu@njau.edu.cn) ; Asseng, Senthold(sasseng@ufl.edu) |
| 英文摘要 | Efforts to limit global warming to below 2 degrees C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2 degrees C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0 degrees C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5 degrees C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0 degrees C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer-India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2 degrees C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade. |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; CROP YIELD ; IMPACTS ; CO2 ; ADAPTATION ; RESPONSES ; MODELS ; AGRICULTURE ; SIMULATION ; GROWTH |
| 资助项目 | National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars[31725020] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31801260] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51711520319] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31611130182] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571088] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571493] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31761143006] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31561143003] ; Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu province[BK20180523] ; 111 Project[B16026] ; Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD) ; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) through the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project ; CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) ; CGIAR Research Program on Wheat ; FACCE JPI MACSUR project through the metaprogram Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC) of the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA)[031A103B] ; German Federal Ministry for Research and Education (BMBF) through project Limpopo Living Landscapes project (SPACES program)[01LL1304A] ; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) Designing Future Wheat project[BB/P016855/1] ; China Scholarship Council ; JPI FACCE MACSUR2 through the Italian Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forestry Policies ; German Ministry for Research and Education (BMBF) within the FACCE JPI MACSUR project ; MACMIT project through BMBF[01LN1317A] ; Victorian Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources ; Australian Department of Agriculture and Water Resources ; USDA NIFA-Water Cap Award[2015-68007-23133] ; FACCE JPI MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture[2815ERA01J] ; German Science Foundation[EW 119/5-1] ; Labex Agro[1501-003] ; Academy of Finland through the project PLUMES[277403] ; Academy of Finland through the project PLUMES[292836] ; Natural Resources Institute Finland through the project ClimSmartAgri ; Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) |
| WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | WILEY |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000461817500018 |
| 资助机构 | National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu province ; 111 Project ; Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD) ; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) through the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project ; CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) ; CGIAR Research Program on Wheat ; FACCE JPI MACSUR project through the metaprogram Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC) of the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA) ; German Federal Ministry for Research and Education (BMBF) through project Limpopo Living Landscapes project (SPACES program) ; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) Designing Future Wheat project ; China Scholarship Council ; JPI FACCE MACSUR2 through the Italian Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forestry Policies ; German Ministry for Research and Education (BMBF) within the FACCE JPI MACSUR project ; MACMIT project through BMBF ; Victorian Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources ; Australian Department of Agriculture and Water Resources ; USDA NIFA-Water Cap Award ; FACCE JPI MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture ; German Science Foundation ; Labex Agro ; Academy of Finland through the project PLUMES ; Natural Resources Institute Finland through the project ClimSmartAgri ; Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/48637]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhu, Yan; Asseng, Senthold |
| 作者单位 | 1.Nanjing Agr Univ, Jiangsu Collaborat Innovat Ctr Modern Crop Prod, Key Lab Crop Syst Anal & Decis Making,Jiangsu Ke, Natl Engn & Technol Ctr Informat Agr,Minist Agr, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 2.Univ Montpellier, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, LEPSE, Montpellier, France 3.Univ Bonn, Inst Crop Sci & Resource Conservat INRES, Bonn, Germany 4.Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res ZALF, Muncheberg, Germany 5.Univ Copenhagen, Plant Environm Sci, Taastrup, Denmark 6.Lincoln Univ, Lincoln, New Zealand 7.Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, CIHEAM, Montpellier SupAgro,INRA,IAMM, Montpellier, France 8.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Inst Climate & Atmospher Sci, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England 9.Int Ctr Trop Agr CIAT, ESSP Program Climate Change Agr & Food Secur, CGIAR, Cali, Colombia 10.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Bing,Martre, Pierre,Ewert, Frank,et al. Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C above pre-industrial warming[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2019,25(4):1428-1444. |
| APA | Liu, Bing.,Martre, Pierre.,Ewert, Frank.,Porter, John R..,Challinor, Andy J..,...&Asseng, Senthold.(2019).Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C above pre-industrial warming.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,25(4),1428-1444. |
| MLA | Liu, Bing,et al."Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C above pre-industrial warming".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 25.4(2019):1428-1444. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。