Socioeconomic driving forces and scenario simulation of CO2 emissions for a fast-developing region in China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, Shaojian1; Wang, Jieyu1; Li, Shijie1; Fang, Chuanglin2 ; Feng, Kuishuang3,4
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| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
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| 出版日期 | 2019-04-10 |
| 卷号 | 216页码:217-229 |
| 关键词 | CO2 emissions STIRPAT model Ridge regression Scenario analysis Guangdong province |
| ISSN号 | 0959-6526 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.01.143 |
| 通讯作者 | Fang, Chuanglin(fangcl@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Feng, Kuishuang(fengkuishuang@gmail.com) |
| 英文摘要 | Guangdong is one of China's fastest developing provinces, and thus faces the challenge of reducing CO2 emissions whilst fostering economic growth. In order to advance the goal of developing a low-carbon economy in China, this study explored influencing factors, change trends, and reduction potential in relation to CO2 emissions in Guangdong Province using a provincial dataset covering the period 1995 to 2014. We used extended STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology) model and the technique of ridge regression in order to identify key influencing factors behind Guangdong's CO2 emissions. We also forecasted emission trends and estimated reduction potential in the period 2015-2030. Our empirical results indicate that economic development, population growth, urbanization, fixed asset investment, and industrialization level all positively affected CO2 emissions during the period studied, while the impacts of energy consumption structure and technology progress were found to be negative. Scenario simulations reveal that the aggregate CO2 emissions of Guangdong Province will increase continuously up to 2030 under all of the twenty scenarios developed and tested in this study: despite this, we argue that the potential for emission reduction remains large. An optimal scenario was identified after cross-sectional comparison. Our analysis casts new light on the importance of exploring socioeconomic determinants and reduction potential in relation to emissions, in order to plan for rapidly developing regions like Guangdong. The empirical findings have significant implications for the Chinese government in implementing policy measures in order to promote low-carbon development (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
| WOS关键词 | CARBON-DIOXIDE EMISSIONS ; ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVES ; PANEL-DATA ANALYSIS ; ENERGY-CONSUMPTION ; URBAN FORM ; EMPIRICAL-EVIDENCE ; ECONOMIC-GROWTH ; FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT ; RIDGE-REGRESSION ; IMPACT FACTORS |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41590842] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41601151] ; Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province[2016A030310149] ; Pearl River S&T Nova Program of Guangzhou[201806010187] ; China Scholarship Council[201806385014] |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000460709800019 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province ; Pearl River S&T Nova Program of Guangzhou ; China Scholarship Council |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/49185]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Fang, Chuanglin; Feng, Kuishuang |
| 作者单位 | 1.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Geog & Planning, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Urbanizat & Geosimulat, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Shandong Univ, Inst Blue & Green Dev, Weihai Campus, Weihai 264200, Peoples R China 4.Univ Maryland, Dept Geog Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Shaojian,Wang, Jieyu,Li, Shijie,et al. Socioeconomic driving forces and scenario simulation of CO2 emissions for a fast-developing region in China[J]. JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,2019,216:217-229. |
| APA | Wang, Shaojian,Wang, Jieyu,Li, Shijie,Fang, Chuanglin,&Feng, Kuishuang.(2019).Socioeconomic driving forces and scenario simulation of CO2 emissions for a fast-developing region in China.JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,216,217-229. |
| MLA | Wang, Shaojian,et al."Socioeconomic driving forces and scenario simulation of CO2 emissions for a fast-developing region in China".JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 216(2019):217-229. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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