State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Schewe, Jacob1; Gosling, Simon N.2; Reyer, Christopher1; Zhao, Fang3; Ciais, Philippe4; Elliott, Joshua5,6; Francois, Louis7; Huber, Veronika8; Lotze, Heike K.9; Seneviratne, Sonia, I10 |
| 刊名 | NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2019-03-01 |
| 卷号 | 10页码:14 |
| ISSN号 | 2041-1723 |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6 |
| 通讯作者 | Schewe, Jacob(schewe@pik.potsdam.de) |
| 英文摘要 | Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought. |
| WOS关键词 | 2003 HEAT-WAVE ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; LAND-SURFACE ; MULTIMODEL ASSESSMENT ; PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY ; EUROPEAN HEATWAVE ; MORTALITY ; SUMMER ; WATER ; TEMPERATURE |
| 资助项目 | Leibniz Competition[SAW-2013-PIK-5] ; EU FP7 project HELIX[FP7-603864-2] ; FP7 project IMPACT2C[282746] ; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)[01LS1201A1] ; JSPS[16H06291] |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000459988600017 |
| 资助机构 | Leibniz Competition ; EU FP7 project HELIX ; FP7 project IMPACT2C ; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) ; JSPS |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/49297]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Schewe, Jacob |
| 作者单位 | 1.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Member Leibniz Assoc, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany 2.Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England 3.East China Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Shanghai 200241, Peoples R China 4.UVSQ, CNRS, CEA, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France 5.Univ Chicago, 5735S Ellis Ave, Chicago, IL 60637 USA 6.ANL Computat Inst, 5735S Ellis Ave, Chicago, IL 60637 USA 7.Univ Liege, Inst Astrophys & Geophys, UR SPHERES, B-4000 Liege, Belgium 8.Univ Pablo de Olavide, Dept Phys Chem & Nat Syst, Ctra de Utrera 1, Seville 41013, Spain 9.Dalhousie Univ, Dept Biol, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada 10.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Land Climate Dynam, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Schewe, Jacob,Gosling, Simon N.,Reyer, Christopher,et al. State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2019,10:14. |
| APA | Schewe, Jacob.,Gosling, Simon N..,Reyer, Christopher.,Zhao, Fang.,Ciais, Philippe.,...&Warszawski, Lila.(2019).State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,10,14. |
| MLA | Schewe, Jacob,et al."State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 10(2019):14. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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