A prognostic phenology model for alpine meadows on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Sun, Qingling1,2; Li, Baolin1,2,3 ; Yuan, Yecheng1; Jiang, Yuhao1,2; Zhang, Tao1,2; Gao, Xizhang1; Ge, Jinsong4; Li, Fei4; Zhang, Zhijun4
|
| 刊名 | ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2018-10-01 |
| 卷号 | 93页码:1089-1100 |
| 关键词 | Phenology model Alpine meadow Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Growing Season Index Climatic factor |
| ISSN号 | 1470-160X |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.05.061 |
| 通讯作者 | Li, Baolin(libl@lreis.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Phenology models are useful tools to study phenology shifts and their responses to climate change. Multiple factors including temperature, precipitation, photoperiod, insolation, and snow can affect the phenology of alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), but most models applied on the QTP have only considered the influences of temperature or temperature and precipitation. This study presents a multi-factor-driven phenology model, the Alpine Meadow Prognostic Phenology (AMPP) model, based on the Growing Season Index (GSI), to predict both leaf onset and offset dates of QTP alpine meadows at the community scale. Five factors including daily minimum air temperature, precipitation averaged over the previous month, photoperiod, global solar radiation, and snowfall were combined into an integrated index, the Alpine Meadow Growing Season Index, to quantify climatic limitations on foliar development of QTP alpine meadows. A case study was conducted using the observed leaf onset and offset dates of dominant species in QTP Kobresia meadows from 1989 to 2016. The root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of modeled leaf onset and offset dates from the AMPP model were 6.9 d and 11.0 d, respectively, decreasing by 13.8%-48.9% and 7.6%-47.1% compared with the null model and seven other phenology models. The correlation coefficients between the predicted and observed leaf onset and offset dates were 0.75 and 0.34, respectively, higher than the 0.50-0.68 and -0.22-0.11 from other models. The RMSE ranges of predicted leaf onset and offset dates among three different sites were 2.9 d and 1.1 d, respectively, lower than or equal to the 3.6-12.4 d and the 1.1-6.9 d from other models. Results indicated that the AMPP model clearly improved the prediction accuracy and simulation of the interannual variability of leaf onset and offset dates and showed more robust simulations at different sites. Moreover, this model can be easily embedded into most ecosystem process models and applied to other alpine or subalpine grasslands once it has been adapted to their requirements. |
| WOS关键词 | DELAYED SPRING PHENOLOGY ; VEGETATION PHENOLOGY ; AUTUMN PHENOLOGY ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SNOW COVER ; GREEN-UP ; RESPONSES ; WINTER ; TEMPERATURE ; SENESCENCE |
| 资助项目 | National Key Research and Development Plan of China[2016YFC0500205] ; National Basic Research Program of China[2015CB954103] ; Ministry of Science and Technology, China |
| WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000452692600107 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV |
| 资助机构 | National Key Research and Development Plan of China ; National Basic Research Program of China ; Ministry of Science and Technology, China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/51279]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Li, Baolin |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Reso, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 4.Qinghai Remote Sensing Monitoring Ctr Ecol & Envi, Xining 810007, Qinghai, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sun, Qingling,Li, Baolin,Yuan, Yecheng,et al. A prognostic phenology model for alpine meadows on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J]. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,2018,93:1089-1100. |
| APA | Sun, Qingling.,Li, Baolin.,Yuan, Yecheng.,Jiang, Yuhao.,Zhang, Tao.,...&Zhang, Zhijun.(2018).A prognostic phenology model for alpine meadows on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,93,1089-1100. |
| MLA | Sun, Qingling,et al."A prognostic phenology model for alpine meadows on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 93(2018):1089-1100. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。