Evapotranspiration simulations in ISIMIP2a-Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wartenburger, Richard1; Seneviratne, Sonia, I1; Hirschi, Martin1; Chang, Jinfeng24,31; Ciais, Philippe24; Deryng, Delphine2,3; Elliott, Joshua26; Folberth, Christian9; Gosling, Simon N.21; Gudmundsson, Lukas1 |
| 刊名 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2018-07-01 |
| 卷号 | 13期号:7页码:20 |
| ISSN号 | 1748-9326 |
| 关键词 | ISIMIP2a evapotranspiration uncertainty cluster analysis hydrological extreme events |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aac4bb |
| 通讯作者 | Wartenburger, Richard(richard.wartenburger@env.ethz.ch) |
| 英文摘要 | Actual land evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the global hydrological cycle and an essential variable determining the evolution of hydrological extreme events under different climate change scenarios. However, recently available ET products show persistent uncertainties that are impeding a precise attribution of human-induced climate change. Here, we aim at comparing a range of independent global monthly land ET estimates with historical model simulations from the global water, agriculture, and biomes sectors participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a). Among the independent estimates, we use the EartH2Observe Tier-1 dataset (E2O), two commonly used reanalyses, a pre-compiled ensemble product (LandFlux-EVAL), and an updated collection of recently published datasets that algorithmically derive ET from observations or observations-based estimates (diagnostic datasets). A cluster analysis is applied in order to identify spatio-temporal differences among all datasets and to thus identify factors that dominate overall uncertainties. The clustering is controlled by several factors including the model choice, the meteorological forcing used to drive the assessed models, the data category (models participating in the different sectors of ISIMIP2a, E2O models, diagnostic estimates, reanalysis-based estimates or composite products), the ET scheme, and the number of soil layers in the models. By using these factors to explain spatial and spatio-temporal variabilities in ET, we find that the model choice mostly dominates (24%-40% of variance explained), except for spatio-temporal patterns of total ET, where the forcing explains the largest fraction of the variance (29%). The most dominant clusters of datasets are further compared with individual diagnostic and reanalysis-based estimates to assess their representation of selected heat waves and droughts in the Great Plains, Central Europe and western Russia. Although most of the ET estimates capture these extreme events, the generally large spread among the entire ensemble indicates substantial uncertainties. |
| WOS关键词 | SURFACE PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES ; GLOBAL TERRESTRIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; MODEL DESCRIPTION ; WATER-RESOURCES ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; HYDROLOGICAL MODELS ; FUTURE PROJECTIONS ; VEGETATION MODEL ; REANALYSIS DATA |
| 资助项目 | European Research Council DROUGHT-HEAT project[617518] ; Office of Science of the US Department of Energy as part of the Integrated Assessment Research Program ; US DOE[DE-AC05-76RLO1830] ; DECC[GA01101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41625001] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571022] ; Southern University of Science and Technology[G01296001] ; Defra Integrated Climate Program - DECC/Defra[GA01101] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | IOP PUBLISHING LTD |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000436020600001 |
| 资助机构 | European Research Council DROUGHT-HEAT project ; Office of Science of the US Department of Energy as part of the Integrated Assessment Research Program ; US DOE ; DECC ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Southern University of Science and Technology ; Defra Integrated Climate Program - DECC/Defra |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/54613]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Wartenburger, Richard |
| 作者单位 | 1.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Univ Str 16, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland 2.Climate Analyt, D-10969 Berlin, Germany 3.Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY 10025 USA 4.IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 5.Goethe Univ Frankfurt, Inst Phys Geog, Frankfurt, Germany 6.Senckenberg Biodivers & Climate Res Ctr SBiK, Frankfurt, Germany 7.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China 8.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Atmospher Sci & Global Change Div, Richland, WA 99352 USA 9.IIASA, Ecosyst Serv & Management Program, Laxenburg, Austria 10.Univ Birmingham, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham, W Midlands, England |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wartenburger, Richard,Seneviratne, Sonia, I,Hirschi, Martin,et al. Evapotranspiration simulations in ISIMIP2a-Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(7):20. |
| APA | Wartenburger, Richard.,Seneviratne, Sonia, I.,Hirschi, Martin.,Chang, Jinfeng.,Ciais, Philippe.,...&Zhou, Tian.(2018).Evapotranspiration simulations in ISIMIP2a-Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(7),20. |
| MLA | Wartenburger, Richard,et al."Evapotranspiration simulations in ISIMIP2a-Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.7(2018):20. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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