Projecting potential spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in China with climate change
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Hundessa, Samuel1; Williams, Gail1; Li, Shanshan2; Liu, De Li3; Cao, Wei4 ; Ren, Hongyan4; Guo, Jinpeng5; Gasparrini, Antonio6; Ebi, Kristie7; Zhang, Wenyi5
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| 刊名 | SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
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| 出版日期 | 2018-06-15 |
| 卷号 | 627页码:1285-1293 |
| 关键词 | P. vivax P. falciparum Climate Malaria RCP Scenario |
| ISSN号 | 0048-9697 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.300 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Wenyi(zhangwenyi@bmi.ac.cn) ; Guo, Yuming(yuming.guo@monash.edu) |
| 英文摘要 | Background: Global climate change is likely to increase the geographic range and seasonality of malaria transmission. Areas suitable for distribution of malaria vectors are predicted to increase with climate change but evidence is limited on future distribution of malaria with climate in China. Objective: Our aim was to assess a potential effect of climate change on Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax) and Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) malaria under climate change scenarios. Methods: National malaria surveillance data during 2005-2014 were integrated with corresponding climate data to model current weather-malaria relationship. We used the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) with a spatial component, assuming a quasi-Poisson distribution and including an offset for the population while accounting for potential non-linearity and long-term trend. The association was applied to future climate to project county-level malaria distribution using ensembles of Global Climate Models under two climate scenarios - Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results: Climate change could substantially increase P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria, under both climate scenarios, but by larger amount under RCP8.5, compared to the baseline. P. falciparumis projected to increase more than P. vivax. The distributions of P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria are expected to increase in most regions regardless of the climate scenarios. A high percentage (>50%) increases are projected in some counties of the northwest, north, northeast, including northern tip of the northeast China, with a clearer spatial change for P. vivax than P. falciparum under both scenarios, highlighting potential changes in the latitudinal extent of the malaria. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that spatial and temporal distribution of P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria in China will change due to future climate change, if there is no policy to mitigate it. These findings are important to guide the malaria elimination goal for China. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| WOS关键词 | GENERALIZED ADDITIVE-MODELS ; EAST-AFRICAN HIGHLANDS ; ANOPHELES-STEPHENSI ; PREDICTING MALARIA ; DENGUE-FEVER ; TEMPERATURE ; TRANSMISSION ; PRECIPITATION ; ELIMINATION ; SCENARIOS |
| 资助项目 | Career Development Fellowship of Australian National Health and Medical Research Council[APP1107107] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000431848500121 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV |
| 资助机构 | Career Development Fellowship of Australian National Health and Medical Research Council |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/54828]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Wenyi; Guo, Yuming |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Queensland, Sch Publ Hlth, Div Epidemiol & Biostat, Brisbane, Qld 4006, Australia 2.Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Level 2,553 St Kilda Rd, Melbourne, Vic 3004, Australia 3.Wagga Wagga Agr Inst, NSW Dept Primary Ind, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.Inst Dis Control & Prevent PLA, 20 Dong Da Street, Beijing 100071, Peoples R China 6.London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Social & Environm Hlth Res, 15-17 Tavistock Pl, London WC1H 9SH, England 7.Univ Washington, Dept Global Hlth, Seattle, WA 98105 USA |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hundessa, Samuel,Williams, Gail,Li, Shanshan,et al. Projecting potential spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in China with climate change[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2018,627:1285-1293. |
| APA | Hundessa, Samuel.,Williams, Gail.,Li, Shanshan.,Liu, De Li.,Cao, Wei.,...&Guo, Yuming.(2018).Projecting potential spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in China with climate change.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,627,1285-1293. |
| MLA | Hundessa, Samuel,et al."Projecting potential spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in China with climate change".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 627(2018):1285-1293. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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