A systems dynamic model of a coal-based city with multiple adaptive scenarios: A case study of Ordos, China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Liu, XiaoQian1,2; Pei, Tao2,3 ; Zhou, ChengHu2; Du, YunYan2; Ma, Ting2; Xie, ChuanJie2; Xu, Jun2
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| 刊名 | SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES
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| 出版日期 | 2018-03-01 |
| 卷号 | 61期号:3页码:302-316 |
| 关键词 | System dynamics model Stella Resource-based city Multiple adaptive scenarios |
| ISSN号 | 1674-7313 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11430-016-9077-5 |
| 通讯作者 | Pei, Tao(peit@lreis.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Cities based on coal resources have increasingly important social and economic roles in China. Their strategies for sustainable development, however, urgently need to be improved, which represents a huge challenge. Most observers believe that the continued progress of these cities relies on the optimization of scientific adaptive management in which social, economic, and ecological factors are incorporated. A systems perspective that combines policies, management priorities, and long-term policy impacts needs to be applied. To date, however, such an approach has not been adopted, which means it is difficult to implement adaptive management at the regional scale. In this study, we used various situations to develop a multiple adaptive scenario system dynamics model. We then simulated a range of policy scenarios, with Ordos in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as a case study. Simulation results showed that the current strategy is not sustainable and predicted that the system would exceed the environmental capacity, with risks of resource exhaustion and urban decline in 2025-2035. Five critical policy variables, including the urban population carrying capacity, rates of water consumption and water recycling, and expansion of urban land cover, were identified during sensitivity analysis. We developed and compared six socio-economic scenarios. The urban area, represented by the urban population density, seemed to transition through five different stages, namely natural growth, rapid growth, stable oscillation, fading, and rebalancing. Our scenarios suggested that different policies had different roles through each stage. The water use efficiency management policy had a comprehensive far-reaching influence on the system behavior; land urbanization management functions dominated at the start, and population capacity management was a major control in the mid-term. Our results showed that the water recycling policy and the urban population carrying capacity were extremely important, and both should be reinforced and evaluated by the local governments. |
| WOS关键词 | SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ; ENERGY-CONSUMPTION ; ECONOMIC-SYSTEMS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MINING CITIES ; DESERTIFICATION ; ENVIRONMENT ; RESOURCE ; STELLA ; IMPACT |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41590845] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41601096] ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[2015M581160] |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000426574800006 |
| 出版者 | SCIENCE PRESS |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/57032]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Pei, Tao |
| 作者单位 | 1.Beijing Union Univ, Coll Arts & Sci, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Reso, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, XiaoQian,Pei, Tao,Zhou, ChengHu,et al. A systems dynamic model of a coal-based city with multiple adaptive scenarios: A case study of Ordos, China[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,2018,61(3):302-316. |
| APA | Liu, XiaoQian.,Pei, Tao.,Zhou, ChengHu.,Du, YunYan.,Ma, Ting.,...&Xu, Jun.(2018).A systems dynamic model of a coal-based city with multiple adaptive scenarios: A case study of Ordos, China.SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,61(3),302-316. |
| MLA | Liu, XiaoQian,et al."A systems dynamic model of a coal-based city with multiple adaptive scenarios: A case study of Ordos, China".SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES 61.3(2018):302-316. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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