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Rainfall statistics, stationarity, and climate change

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Sun, Fubao1,2,3,4,5; Roderick, Michael L.3,4,6; Farquhar, Graham D.3,4
刊名PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
出版日期2018-03-06
卷号115期号:10页码:2305-2310
关键词precipitation stationarity variance
ISSN号0027-8424
DOI10.1073/pnas.1705349115
通讯作者Farquhar, Graham D.(Graham.Farquhar@anu.edu.au)
英文摘要There is a growing research interest in the detection of changes in hydrologic and climatic time series. Stationarity can be assessed using the autocorrelation function, but this is not yet common practice in hydrology and climate. Here, we use a global land-based gridded annual precipitation (hereafter P) database (1940-2009) and find that the lag 1 autocorrelation coefficient is statistically significant at around 14% of the global land surface, implying nonstationary behavior (90% confidence). In contrast, around 76% of the global land surface shows little or no change, implying stationary behavior. We use these results to assess change in the observed P over the most recent decade of the database. We find that the changes for most (84%) grid boxes are within the plausible bounds of no significant change at the 90% CI. The results emphasize the importance of adequately accounting for natural variability when assessing change.
WOS关键词PRECIPITATION TRENDS ; WATER MANAGEMENT ; DROUGHT ; PERSISTENCE ; REGIONS ; EVENTS ; DEAD
资助项目National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602402] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFC0401401] ; Australian Research Council[CE1101028] ; Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)[ZDRW-ZS-2017-1] ; CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program ; Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology in Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography of the CAS
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000426671900052
出版者NATL ACAD SCIENCES
资助机构National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Australian Research Council ; Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) ; CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program ; Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology in Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography of the CAS
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/57184]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Farquhar, Graham D.
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Hexi Univ, Ecol Inst Qilian Mt, Zhangye City 734000, Gansu, Peoples R China
3.Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Biol, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
4.Australian Res Council Ctr Excellence Climate Sys, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
5.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 101407, Peoples R China
6.Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Earth Sci, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Sun, Fubao,Roderick, Michael L.,Farquhar, Graham D.. Rainfall statistics, stationarity, and climate change[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2018,115(10):2305-2310.
APA Sun, Fubao,Roderick, Michael L.,&Farquhar, Graham D..(2018).Rainfall statistics, stationarity, and climate change.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,115(10),2305-2310.
MLA Sun, Fubao,et al."Rainfall statistics, stationarity, and climate change".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 115.10(2018):2305-2310.

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来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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