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Modeling domestic water demand in Huaihe River Basin of China under climate change and population dynamics

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Wang, Xiao-Jun1,2,3; Zhang, Jian-Yun1,2; Shahid, Shamsuddin4; Xie, Wei5; Du, Chao-Yang6; Shang, Xiao-Chuan7; Zhang, Xu1,2
刊名ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY
出版日期2018-04-01
卷号20期号:2页码:911-924
关键词Water demand forecast Climate change Domestic water use Water resources management Huaihe River Basin
ISSN号1387-585X
DOI10.1007/s10668-017-9919-7
通讯作者Wang, Xiao-Jun(xjwang@nhri.cn)
英文摘要A statistical model has been developed to forecast domestic water demand by considering climate change, population growth, urbanization, lifestyle changes and technological advances. The developed model is used to forecast future domestic water demand in different sub-basins of Huaihe River Basin of China. The study reveals that mean temperature in Huaihe River Basin will increase by 0.7-1.6 A degrees C, population will reach to 230 million, and 61.2% of the basin area will be urbanized by the year 2030, which will cause a sharp increase in domestic water demand. The increase in domestic water demand for 1 A degrees C increase in mean temperature is found to vary between 0.549 x 10(8) and 5.759 x 10(8) m(3) for different sub-basins of Huaihe River. The forecasted change in domestic water demand is also found to vary widely for different general circulation models (GCMs) used. The GCM BCC-CSM1-1 projected the highest increase in domestic water demand, 168.44 x 10(8) m(3) in 2020, and the GISS-E2-R the lowest, 119.21 x 10(8) m(3). On the other hand, the BNU-ESM projected the highest increase, 196.03 x 10(8) m(3), and the CNRM-CM5 the lowest, 161.05 x 10(8) m(3) in year 2030. Among the different sub-basins, the highest increase in water demand is projected in Middlestream of Huaihe River in the range of 46.9 x 10(8)-65.5 x 10(8) m(3) in 2020, and 61.3 x 10(8)-76.1 x 10(8) m(3) in 2030, which is supposed to cause serious water shortage and an increase in competition among water-using sectors.
WOS关键词RESOURCES ; CONSUMPTION ; BALANCE ; IMPACT ; NEPAL ; CITY
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[51309155] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41330854] ; National Basic Research Program of China[2010CB951104] ; National Basic Research Program of China[2010CB951103] ; Strategic Consulting Projects of Chinese Academy of Engineering[2016-ZD-08-05-02] ; Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research[IWHR-SKL-201515] ; Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change[ARCP2013-25NSY-Shahid]
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000427612100022
出版者SPRINGER
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Basic Research Program of China ; Strategic Consulting Projects of Chinese Academy of Engineering ; Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research ; Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/57200]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Wang, Xiao-Jun
作者单位1.Nanjing Hydraul Res Inst, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing 210029, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
2.Minist Water Resources, Res Ctr Climate Change, Nanjing 210029, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
3.Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Environm, State Key Lab Water Environm Simulat, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
4.Univ Teknol Malaysia, Fac Civil Engn, Johor Baharu 81310, Malaysia
5.Minist Water Resources, Dept Planning & Programming, Beijing 100053, Peoples R China
6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
7.Huaihe River Water Resources Commiss, Bengbu 233001, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Wang, Xiao-Jun,Zhang, Jian-Yun,Shahid, Shamsuddin,et al. Modeling domestic water demand in Huaihe River Basin of China under climate change and population dynamics[J]. ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY,2018,20(2):911-924.
APA Wang, Xiao-Jun.,Zhang, Jian-Yun.,Shahid, Shamsuddin.,Xie, Wei.,Du, Chao-Yang.,...&Zhang, Xu.(2018).Modeling domestic water demand in Huaihe River Basin of China under climate change and population dynamics.ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY,20(2),911-924.
MLA Wang, Xiao-Jun,et al."Modeling domestic water demand in Huaihe River Basin of China under climate change and population dynamics".ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY 20.2(2018):911-924.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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