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Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 degrees C warmer worlds

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Liu, Wenbin1; Sun, Fubao1,2,3,4; Lim, Wee Ho1,5; Zhang, Jie1; Wang, Hong1; Shiogama, Hideo6; Zhang, Yuqing7
刊名EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
出版日期2018-03-19
卷号9期号:1页码:267-283
ISSN号2190-4979
DOI10.5194/esd-9-267-2018
通讯作者Sun, Fubao(sunfb@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C instead of 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 degrees C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 degrees C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 +/- 216.2 million and +194.5 +/- 276.5 million total population and +350.2 +/- 158.8 million and +410.7 +/- 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 degrees C warmer worlds) and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia). Less rural populations (-217.7 +/- 79.2 million and -216.2 +/- 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 degrees C warmer worlds) would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 degrees C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 degrees C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought) and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 degrees C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; CHINA ; IMPACTS ; 1.5-DEGREES-C ; RISK ; SENSITIVITY ; EVAPORATION ; INDEXES ; MODEL
资助项目National Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602402] ; National Research and Development Program of China[2016YFC0401401] ; Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[ZDRW-ZS-2017-3-1] ; CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program ; CAS President's International Fellowship Initiative[2017PC0068]
WOS研究方向Geology
语种英语
出版者COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
WOS记录号WOS:000427734500001
资助机构National Research and Development Program of China ; Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program ; CAS President's International Fellowship Initiative
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/57238]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Sun, Fubao
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Hexi Univ, Ecol Inst Qilian Mt, Zhangye, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Water Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China
5.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford, England
6.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Global Environm Res, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
7.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Coll Atmospher Sci, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Liu, Wenbin,Sun, Fubao,Lim, Wee Ho,et al. Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 degrees C warmer worlds[J]. EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS,2018,9(1):267-283.
APA Liu, Wenbin.,Sun, Fubao.,Lim, Wee Ho.,Zhang, Jie.,Wang, Hong.,...&Zhang, Yuqing.(2018).Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 degrees C warmer worlds.EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS,9(1),267-283.
MLA Liu, Wenbin,et al."Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 degrees C warmer worlds".EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS 9.1(2018):267-283.

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来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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