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Forecasting tourist arrivals with machine learning and internet search index

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Sun, Shaolong1,2,3; Wei, Yunjie1,4; Tsui, Kwok-Leung3; Wang, Shouyang1,2,4
刊名TOURISM MANAGEMENT
出版日期2019-02-01
卷号70页码:1-10
关键词Tourism demand forecasting Kernel extreme learning machine Search query data Big data analytics Composite search index
ISSN号0261-5177
DOI10.1016/j.tourman.2018.07.010
英文摘要Previous studies have shown that online data, such as search engine queries, is a new source of data that can be used to forecast tourism demand. In this study, we propose a forecasting framework that uses machine learning and internet search indexes to forecast tourist arrivals for popular destinations in China and compared its forecasting performance to the search results generated by Google and Baidu, respectively. This study verifies the Granger causality and co-integration relationship between internet search index and tourist arrivals of Beijing. Our experimental results suggest that compared with benchmark models, the proposed kernel extreme learning machine (KELM) models, which integrate tourist volume series with Baidu Index and Google Index, can improve the forecasting performance significantly in terms of both forecasting accuracy and robustness analysis.
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[51505307] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[11471275] ; General Research Fund[CityU 11216014] ; Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China[T32-101/15-R]
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Social Sciences - Other Topics ; Business & Economics
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000448096100001
出版者ELSEVIER SCI LTD
源URL[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/31688]  
专题系统科学研究所
通讯作者Wang, Shouyang
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Zhongguancun East Rd 55, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
3.City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Syst Engn & Engn Management, Tat Chee Ave, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Sun, Shaolong,Wei, Yunjie,Tsui, Kwok-Leung,et al. Forecasting tourist arrivals with machine learning and internet search index[J]. TOURISM MANAGEMENT,2019,70:1-10.
APA Sun, Shaolong,Wei, Yunjie,Tsui, Kwok-Leung,&Wang, Shouyang.(2019).Forecasting tourist arrivals with machine learning and internet search index.TOURISM MANAGEMENT,70,1-10.
MLA Sun, Shaolong,et al."Forecasting tourist arrivals with machine learning and internet search index".TOURISM MANAGEMENT 70(2019):1-10.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：数学与系统科学研究院

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