Forecasting container throughput based on wavelet transforms within a decomposition-ensemble methodology: a case study of China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Xie, Gang1 ; Qian, Yatong1,2; Yang, Hewei1
|
| 刊名 | MARITIME POLICY & MANAGEMENT
 |
| 出版日期 | 2019-02-17 |
| 卷号 | 46期号:2页码:178-200 |
| 关键词 | Container throughput wavelet transform data characteristic analysis time series forecasting decomposition-ensemble methodology |
| ISSN号 | 0308-8839 |
| DOI | 10.1080/03088839.2018.1476741 |
| 英文摘要 | To improve predictive accuracy, new hybrid models are proposed for container throughput forecasting based on wavelet transforms and data characteristic analysis (DCA) within a decomposition-ensemble methodology. Because of the complexity and nonlinearity of the time series of container throughputs at ports, the methodology decomposes the original time series into several components, which are rather simpler sub-sequences. Consequently, difficult forecasting tasks are simplified into a number of relatively easier subtasks. In this way, the proposed hybrid models can improve the accuracy of forecasting significantly. In the methodology, four main steps are involved: data decomposition, component reconstruction based on the DCA, individual prediction for each reconstructed component, and ensemble prediction as the final output. An empirical analysis was conducted for illustration and verification purposes by using time series of container throughputs at three main ports in Bohai Rim, China. The results suggest that the proposed hybrid models are able to forecast better than do other benchmark models. Forecasting may facilitate effective real-time decision making for strategic management and policy drafting. Predictions of container throughput can help port managers make tactical and operational decisions, such as operations planning in ports, the scheduling of port equipment, and route optimization. |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[71771207] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71372176] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71390331] ; National Center for Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences, CAS |
| WOS研究方向 | Transportation |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000453701300003 |
| 出版者 | ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/31850]  |
| 专题 | 系统科学研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Xie, Gang |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, MDIS, CFS, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xie, Gang,Qian, Yatong,Yang, Hewei. Forecasting container throughput based on wavelet transforms within a decomposition-ensemble methodology: a case study of China[J]. MARITIME POLICY & MANAGEMENT,2019,46(2):178-200. |
| APA | Xie, Gang,Qian, Yatong,&Yang, Hewei.(2019).Forecasting container throughput based on wavelet transforms within a decomposition-ensemble methodology: a case study of China.MARITIME POLICY & MANAGEMENT,46(2),178-200. |
| MLA | Xie, Gang,et al."Forecasting container throughput based on wavelet transforms within a decomposition-ensemble methodology: a case study of China".MARITIME POLICY & MANAGEMENT 46.2(2019):178-200. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：数学与系统科学研究院
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