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Biased Learning Creates Overconfidence

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Ni Xuanming1; Wu Chen2,3; Zhao Huimin4
刊名JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY
出版日期2018-12-01
卷号31期号:6页码:1603-1617
关键词Bayes' rule biased learning overconfidence
ISSN号1009-6124
DOI10.1007/s11424-018-7254-1
英文摘要The aim of this paper is to develop a multi-period economic model to interpret how the people become overconfident by a biased learning that people tend to attribute the success to their abilities and failures to other factors. The authors suppose that the informed trader does not know the distribution of the precision of his private signal and updates his belief on the distribution of the precision of his knowledge by Bayer's rule. The informed trader can eventually recognize the value of the precision of his knowledge after an enough long time biased learning, but the value is overestimated which leads him to be overconfident. Furthermore, based on the definition on the luckier trader who succeeds the same times but has the larger variance of the knowledge, the authors find that the luckier the informed trader is, the more overconfident he will be; the smaller the biased learning factor is, the more overconfident the informed trader is. The authors also obtain a linear equilibrium which can explain some anomalies in financial markets, such as the high observed trading volume and excess volatility.
WOS研究方向Mathematics
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000452723900013
出版者SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
源URL[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/31937]  
专题中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者Zhao Huimin
作者单位1.Peking Univ, Sch Software & Microelect, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
4.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Business Sch, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Ni Xuanming,Wu Chen,Zhao Huimin. Biased Learning Creates Overconfidence[J]. JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,2018,31(6):1603-1617.
APA Ni Xuanming,Wu Chen,&Zhao Huimin.(2018).Biased Learning Creates Overconfidence.JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,31(6),1603-1617.
MLA Ni Xuanming,et al."Biased Learning Creates Overconfidence".JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY 31.6(2018):1603-1617.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：数学与系统科学研究院

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