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A proportional odds model of human mobility and migration patterns

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Ma, Ting1,2,4; Zhu, Rong3; Wang, Jianghao1,2; Zhao, Na1,2; Pei, Tao1,2; Du, Yunyan1,2; Zhou, Chenghu1,2; Chen, Jie1,2
刊名INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE
出版日期2019
卷号33期号:1页码:81-98
关键词Human mobility and migration the proportion odds migration probability probability-based modelling
ISSN号1365-8816
DOI10.1080/13658816.2018.1514608
英文摘要The modelling of human mobility and migration patterns has received much attention due to its substantial importance. Despite long-term efforts, we still lack a modelling framework that captures mobility patterns and further obtains a prospective view of movement trends with regards to diverse impacting factors. Here, we propose a proportional odds model of human mobility and migration (POM-HM) that takes a probabilistic approach to model human movements. Our model is based on the migration probability with a log-logistic distribution under the proportional odds assumption. Explanatory variables are introduced into the model by re-parameterizing the probability distribution function. The two resultant functions, namely, the migration strength and cumulative hazard, are used to estimate regional differences among travel fluxes and their tendencies. The performance of the POM-HM in terms of its validity and accuracy is examined and compared with the gravity model and the radiation model. The probability-based modelling framework enables us to investigate regional variations in migrant fluxes consequently further predict potential future patterns. In short, our modelling approach captures the probabilistic nature of human mobility and migration and furthers our understanding of both the spatiotemporal patterns of population movements and the impacts of various driving forces.
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[41771418] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41421001] ; Key Research Program of Frontier Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences[QYZDY-SSW-DQC007] ; National Science and Technology Key Project[2016YFB0502301] ; National Key Basic Research Program of China[2015CB954101]
WOS研究方向Computer Science ; Geography ; Physical Geography ; Information Science & Library Science
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000452083200004
出版者TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
源URL[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/31945]  
专题系统科学研究所
通讯作者Ma, Ting
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Res, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Ma, Ting,Zhu, Rong,Wang, Jianghao,et al. A proportional odds model of human mobility and migration patterns[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE,2019,33(1):81-98.
APA Ma, Ting.,Zhu, Rong.,Wang, Jianghao.,Zhao, Na.,Pei, Tao.,...&Chen, Jie.(2019).A proportional odds model of human mobility and migration patterns.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE,33(1),81-98.
MLA Ma, Ting,et al."A proportional odds model of human mobility and migration patterns".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE 33.1(2019):81-98.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：数学与系统科学研究院

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