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Robust climate change research: a review on multi-model analysis

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Duan, Hongbo1,2; Zhang, Gupeng3; Wang, Shouyang1,4; Fan, Ying5
刊名ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
出版日期2019-03-01
卷号14期号:3页码:23
关键词multi-model study robust climate policy integrated assessment model climate models survey
ISSN号1748-9326
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/aaf8f9
英文摘要Significant differences in key results across the various climate models and integrated assessment models (IAMs) represent a critical challenge to reliable scientific findings and the robust design of climate policies, which leads to an enormous amount of attention and the urgent call for a multi-model study. In this paper, we develop an integrated literature-survey framework by combining the typical content analysis with a simple statistical analysis to systematically examine the developing trends of IAM-based multi-model studies and explore the model-robust climate policy findings; we also conduct an extended analysis to identify the role of a multi-model approach in global warming and other global change research by employing co-citation network analysis. The results reveal that multi-model comparison and ensemble are effective methods to explore reliable scientific findings and yield robust policy conclusions. The current multi-model studies are sparse as a whole, especially for IAM-based climate economic and policy research; future multi-model works, at both the global and regional levels, are therefore promising. We observe that the developed countries (the EU and the US) dominate the current multi-model study, which could be proved by the number of primary IAMs developed, frequency of models adopted, and number of works published. Addressing the risks of global warming relies on reliable scientific research and robust climate policy design, particularly for the developing large emitters, which heavily depends on consistent efforts toward primary model development and comprehensive cooperation with state-of-the-art model teams all over the world.
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[71874177] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71503242] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71690245] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71872169]
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000459251900001
出版者IOP PUBLISHING LTD
源URL[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/32533]  
专题系统科学研究所
通讯作者Zhang, Gupeng
作者单位1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
2.Univ Kansas, Dept Econ, Lawrence, KS 66045 USA
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Publ Policy & Management, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
5.Beihang Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Duan, Hongbo,Zhang, Gupeng,Wang, Shouyang,et al. Robust climate change research: a review on multi-model analysis[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(3):23.
APA Duan, Hongbo,Zhang, Gupeng,Wang, Shouyang,&Fan, Ying.(2019).Robust climate change research: a review on multi-model analysis.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(3),23.
MLA Duan, Hongbo,et al."Robust climate change research: a review on multi-model analysis".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.3(2019):23.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：数学与系统科学研究院

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