Debris Flow Risk Assessment Based on a Water-Soil Process Model at the Watershed Scale Under Climate Change: A Case Study in a Debris-Flow-Prone Area of Southwest China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Li, Qinwen1,2,3; Lu, Yafeng1,2 ; Wang, Yukuan1,2; Xu, Pei1,2
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| 刊名 | SUSTAINABILITY
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| 出版日期 | 2019-06-01 |
| 卷号 | 11期号:11页码:15 |
| 关键词 | climate change rainfall-induced debris flow mechanism model risk reduction management |
| ISSN号 | 2071-1050 |
| DOI | 10.3390/su11113199 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Yukuan(wangyukuan@imde.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Risk assessment lays a foundation for disaster risk reduction management, especially in relation to climate change. Intensified extreme weather and climate events driven by climate change may increase related disaster susceptibility. This may interact with exposed and vulnerable socioeconomic systems to aggravate the impacts and impede progress towards regional development. In this study, debris flow risk under climate change was assessed by an integrated debris flow mechanism model and an inclusive socioeconomic status evaluation. We implemented the method for a debris flow-prone area in the eastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. Based on the analysis of three general circulation models (GCMs)Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1 (BCC_CSM), model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate- Earth System, version 5 (MIROC5, and the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4)the water-soil process model was applied to assess debris flow susceptibility. For the vulnerability evaluation, an index system established from the categories of bearing elements was analyzed by principle component analysis (PCA) methods. Our results showed that 432 to 1106 watersheds (accounting for 23% to 52% of the study area) were identified as debris-flow watersheds, although extreme rainfall would occur in most of the area from 2007 to 2060. The distributions of debris flow watersheds were concentrated in the north and transition zones of the study area. Additionally, the result of the index and PCA suggested that most areas had relatively low socioeconomic scores and such areas were considered as high-vulnerability human systems (accounts for 91%). Further analysis found that population density, road density, and gross domestic production made great contributions to vulnerability reduction. For practical mitigation strategies, we suggested that the enhancement of road density may be the most efficient risk reduction strategy. |
| WOS关键词 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ; MASS-MOVEMENTS ; RETURN PERIOD ; RAINFALL ; PRECIPITATION ; IMPACTS ; HAZARD |
| 资助项目 | National Nature Science Foundation of China[41701114] ; West Light Foundation of The Chinese Academy of Sciences[Y7R280080] |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000472632200204 |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| 资助机构 | National Nature Science Foundation of China ; West Light Foundation of The Chinese Academy of Sciences |
| 源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/26507]  |
| 专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山区发展研究中心 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Yukuan |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan, Peoples R China 2.Minist Water Resources, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Qinwen,Lu, Yafeng,Wang, Yukuan,et al. Debris Flow Risk Assessment Based on a Water-Soil Process Model at the Watershed Scale Under Climate Change: A Case Study in a Debris-Flow-Prone Area of Southwest China[J]. SUSTAINABILITY,2019,11(11):15. |
| APA | Li, Qinwen,Lu, Yafeng,Wang, Yukuan,&Xu, Pei.(2019).Debris Flow Risk Assessment Based on a Water-Soil Process Model at the Watershed Scale Under Climate Change: A Case Study in a Debris-Flow-Prone Area of Southwest China.SUSTAINABILITY,11(11),15. |
| MLA | Li, Qinwen,et al."Debris Flow Risk Assessment Based on a Water-Soil Process Model at the Watershed Scale Under Climate Change: A Case Study in a Debris-Flow-Prone Area of Southwest China".SUSTAINABILITY 11.11(2019):15. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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