Why so many published sensitivity analyses are false: A systematic review of sensitivity analysis practices
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wu, Qiongli1; Li, Sushan2; Holst, Niels3; Ferretti, Federico5; Fennell, Pamela4; Becker, William5; Aleksankina, Ksenia6,7; Saltelli, Andrea8,9 |
| 刊名 | ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2019-04-01 |
| 卷号 | 114页码:29-39 |
| ISSN号 | 1364-8152 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.01.012 |
| 英文摘要 | Sensitivity analysis provides information on the relative importance of model input parameters and assumptions. It is distinct from uncertainty analysis, which addresses the question 'How uncertain is the prediction?' Uncertainty analysis needs to map what a model does when selected input assumptions and parameters are left free to vary over their range of existence, and this is equally true of a sensitivity analysis. Despite this, many uncertainty and sensitivity analyses still explore the input space moving along one-dimensional corridors leaving space of the input factors mostly unexplored. Our extensive systematic literature review shows that many highly cited papers (42% in the present analysis) fail the elementary requirement to properly explore the space of the input factors. The results, while discipline-dependent, point to a worrying lack of standards and recognized good practices. We end by exploring possible reasons for this problem, and suggest some guidelines for proper use of the methods. |
| WOS关键词 | MODELS ; UNCERTAINTY ; SIMULATION |
| WOS研究方向 | Computer Science ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000458135500003 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.wipm.ac.cn/handle/112942/14317]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院武汉物理与数学研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Saltelli, Andrea |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Wuhan Inst Phys & Math, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China 2.Tech Univ Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany 3.Aarhus Univ, Aarhus, Denmark 4.UCL, London, England 5.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Ispra, Italy 6.NERC Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland 7.Univ Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland 8.Univ Oberta Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain 9.Univ Bergen, Bergen, Norway |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wu, Qiongli,Li, Sushan,Holst, Niels,et al. Why so many published sensitivity analyses are false: A systematic review of sensitivity analysis practices[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE,2019,114:29-39. |
| APA | Wu, Qiongli.,Li, Sushan.,Holst, Niels.,Ferretti, Federico.,Fennell, Pamela.,...&Saltelli, Andrea.(2019).Why so many published sensitivity analyses are false: A systematic review of sensitivity analysis practices.ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE,114,29-39. |
| MLA | Wu, Qiongli,et al."Why so many published sensitivity analyses are false: A systematic review of sensitivity analysis practices".ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE 114(2019):29-39. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：武汉物理与数学研究所
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