Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 degrees C warming
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Cai, Wenju1,2,3; Wang, Guojian1,2,3; Gan, Bolan1,2; Wu, Lixin1,2; Santoso, Agus3,4; Lin, Xiaopei1,2; Chen, Zhaohui1,2; Jia, Fan5; Yamagata, Toshio6 |
| 刊名 | NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2018-04-12 |
| 卷号 | 9页码:8 |
| ISSN号 | 2041-1723 |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41467-018-03789-6 |
| 通讯作者 | Cai, Wenju(wenju.cai@csiro.au) ; Wu, Lixin(lxwu@ouc.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) affects weather, agriculture, ecosystems, and public health worldwide, particularly when exacerbated by an extreme El Nino. The Paris Agreement aims to limit warming below 2 degrees C and ideally below 1.5 degrees C in global mean temperature (GMT), but how extreme pIOD will respond to this target is unclear. Here we show that the frequency increases linearly as the warming proceeds, and doubles at 1.5 degrees C warming from the pre-industrial level (statistically significant above the 90% confidence level), underscored by a strong intermodel agreement with 11 out of 13 models producing an increase. However, in sharp contrast to a continuous increase in extreme El Nino frequency long after GMT stabilisation, the extreme pIOD frequency peaks as the GMT stabilises. The contrasting response corresponds to a 50% reduction in frequency of an extreme El Nino preceded by an extreme pIOD from that projected under a business-as-usual scenario. |
| 资助项目 | Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research ; Earth Science and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government's National Environmental Science Programme ; CSIRO Office of Chief Executive Science Leader award ; Australian Research Council |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000429794300012 |
| 出版者 | NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP |
| 源URL | [http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/158468]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院海洋研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Cai, Wenju; Wu, Lixin |
| 作者单位 | 1.Ocean Univ China, Phys Oceanog Lab CIMST, Yushan Rd, Qingdao 266003, Peoples R China 2.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Yushan Rd, Qingdao 266003, Peoples R China 3.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, CSHOR, Hobart, Tas 7004, Australia 4.Univ New South Wales, Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Level 4 Mathews Bldg, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 6.JAMSTEC, Applicat Lab, Kanazawa Ku, 3173-25 Showa Machi, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2360001, Japan |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cai, Wenju,Wang, Guojian,Gan, Bolan,et al. Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 degrees C warming[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2018,9:8. |
| APA | Cai, Wenju.,Wang, Guojian.,Gan, Bolan.,Wu, Lixin.,Santoso, Agus.,...&Yamagata, Toshio.(2018).Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 degrees C warming.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,9,8. |
| MLA | Cai, Wenju,et al."Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 degrees C warming".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 9(2018):8. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：海洋研究所
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