Effects of sunspot cycle length and CO2 on air temperature along Qinghai-Xizang railway prediction and air temperature's trend prediction
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Li, DL; Guo, H; Wang, W; Wei, L |
| 刊名 | SCIENCE IN CHINA SERIES D-EARTH SCIENCES
 |
| 出版日期 | 2004-08-01 |
| 卷号 | 47页码:131-141 |
| 关键词 | Qinghai-Xizang railway annual mean air temperature sunspot cycle length (SCL) atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2) prediction |
| ISSN号 | 1006-9313 |
| DOI | 10.1360/04zd0015 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, W() |
| 英文摘要 | There are well coherences between annual averaged air temperatures at every meteorological station along the Qinghai-Xizang railway, and its 10-year moving average correlation coefficient is 0.92. Thus, the regional averaged annual mean temperature series along the Qinghai-Xizang railway (T-rw) from 1935 to 2000 are constructed. The investigation is suggested that: T-rw had significant responses to the 5-year lagged sunspot cycle length (SCL) and 15-year lagged concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and the correlation coefficients between them are -0.76 (SCL) and 0.88 (CO2), respectively. The future SCL is predicted by the model of average generated function constructed with its main cycles of 76a, 93a, 108a, 205a and 275a. The result shows that the SCL would be becoming longer in the first half of the 21st century, and then it could be becoming shorter in the second half of the 21st century. Based on the natural change of SCL and the effect of double CO2 concentration, T-rw in the 21st century is forecasted. It could warm up about 0.50degreesC in the first half of the 21st century compared with the last decade of last century. The mean maximum air temperature could be likely about 0.20degreesC in July and from 0.40degreesC to 1.10degreesC in January. The annual air temperature difference would likely reduce 0.3-1.00degreesC. The probability of above predictions ranges from 0.64 to 0.73. |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| WOS关键词 | ICE |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology |
| WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000224381400015 |
| 出版者 | SCIENCE CHINA PRESS |
| URI标识 | http://www.irgrid.ac.cn/handle/1471x/2555593 |
| 专题 | 寒区旱区环境与工程研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, W |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Cold & Arid Reg Environm & Engn Res Inst, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China 2.Lanzhou Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, DL,Guo, H,Wang, W,et al. Effects of sunspot cycle length and CO2 on air temperature along Qinghai-Xizang railway prediction and air temperature's trend prediction[J]. SCIENCE IN CHINA SERIES D-EARTH SCIENCES,2004,47:131-141. |
| APA | Li, DL,Guo, H,Wang, W,&Wei, L.(2004).Effects of sunspot cycle length and CO2 on air temperature along Qinghai-Xizang railway prediction and air temperature's trend prediction.SCIENCE IN CHINA SERIES D-EARTH SCIENCES,47,131-141. |
| MLA | Li, DL,et al."Effects of sunspot cycle length and CO2 on air temperature along Qinghai-Xizang railway prediction and air temperature's trend prediction".SCIENCE IN CHINA SERIES D-EARTH SCIENCES 47(2004):131-141. |
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来源：寒区旱区环境与工程研究所
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