中国科学院机构知识库网格
Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid
Responses of dune activity and desertification in China to global warming in the twenty-first century

文献类型:期刊论文

作者Wang, Xunming1,2; Yang, Yi3; Dong, Zhibao1; Zhang, Caixia1
刊名GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
出版日期2009-06-01
卷号67期号:3-4页码:167-185
关键词desertification global warming global climate model (GCM) dune activity China
ISSN号0921-8181
DOI10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.02.004
通讯作者Wang, Xunming(xunming@lzb.ac.cn)
英文摘要Most areas of arid and semiarid China are covered by aeolian sand dunes, sand sheets, and desert steppes, and the existence of the nearly 80 million people who live in this region could be seriously jeopardized if climate change increases desertification. However, the expected trends in desertification during the 21st century are poorly understood. In the present study, we selected the ECHAM4 and HadCM3 global climate models (after comparing them with the results of the GFDL-R30, CGCM2, and CSIRO-Mk2b models) and used simulations of a dune mobility index under IPCC SRES climate scenarios A1FI, A2a, A2b, A2c, B1a, B2a, and B2b to estimate future trends in dune activity and desertification in China. Although uncertainties in climate predictions mean that there is still far to go before we can develop a comprehensive dune activity estimation system, HadCM3 simulations with most greenhouse forcing scenarios showed decreased desertification in most western region of arid and semiarid China by 2039, but increased desertification thereafter, whereas ECHAM4 simulation results showed that desertification will increase during this period. Inhabitants of thecentral region will benefit from reversed desertification from 2010 to 2099, whereas inhabitants of the eastern region will suffer from increased desertification from 2010 to 2099. From 2010 to 2039, most regions will not be significantly affected by desertification, but from 2040 to 2099, the environments of the western and eastern regions will deteriorate due to the significant effects of global warming (particularly the interaction between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration), leading to decreased livestock and grain yields and possibly threatening China's food security. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
收录类别SCI
WOS关键词PAST 50 YEARS ; DUNEFIELD ACTIVITY ; SOUTHWEST KALAHARI ; SEMIARID CHINA ; NORTHERN CHINA ; CLIMATE ; MOBILITY ; DESERT ; 21ST-CENTURY ; VARIABILITY
WOS研究方向Physical Geography ; Geology
WOS类目Geography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000266753900004
出版者ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
URI标识http://www.irgrid.ac.cn/handle/1471x/2556175
专题寒区旱区环境与工程研究所
通讯作者Wang, Xunming
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Cold & Arid Reg Environm & Engn Res Inst, Key Lab Desert & Desertificat, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
2.Lanzhou Univ, MOE Key Lab W Chinas Environm Syst, CAEP, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
3.Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Wang, Xunming,Yang, Yi,Dong, Zhibao,et al. Responses of dune activity and desertification in China to global warming in the twenty-first century[J]. GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,2009,67(3-4):167-185.
APA Wang, Xunming,Yang, Yi,Dong, Zhibao,&Zhang, Caixia.(2009).Responses of dune activity and desertification in China to global warming in the twenty-first century.GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,67(3-4),167-185.
MLA Wang, Xunming,et al."Responses of dune activity and desertification in China to global warming in the twenty-first century".GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE 67.3-4(2009):167-185.

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来源:寒区旱区环境与工程研究所

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