Prediction of permafrost changes in Northeastern China under a changing climate
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wei Zhi1,2,3,6; Jin HuiJun1,6; Zhang JianMing1,6; Yu ShaoPeng1,6; Han XuJun4; Ji YanJun5; He RuiXia1,6; Chang XiaoLi1,6 |
| 刊名 | SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES
 |
| 出版日期 | 2011-06-01 |
| 卷号 | 54期号:6页码:924-935 |
| ISSN号 | 1674-7313 |
| 关键词 | permafrost Northeastern China climate change equivalent latitude model (ELM) prediction |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11430-010-4109-6 |
| 通讯作者 | Jin HuiJun(hjjin@lzb.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Northeastern China has the second largest expanse of permafrost in China, primarily known as Xing'an-Baikal permafrost. Located on the southeastern edges of the Eurasian cryolithozone, the permafrost is thermally unstable and ecologically sensitive to external changes. The combined impacts of climatic, environmental, and anthropogenic changes cause 3-dimensional degradation of the permafrost. To predict these changes on the southern limit and ground temperature of permafrost in Northeastern China, an equivalent latitude model (ELM) for the mean annual ground surface temperature (MAGSTs) was proposed, and further improved to take into account of the influences of vegetation and snow-cover based on observational data and using the SHAW model. Using the finite element method and assuming a climate warming rate of 0.048A degrees C a(-1), the ELM was combined with the unsteady-state heat conduction model to simulate permafrost temperatures at present, and to predict those after 50 and 100 a. The results indicate that at present, sporadic permafrost occurs in the zones with MAGSTs of 1.5A degrees C or colder, and there would still be a significant presence of permafrost in the zones with the present MAGSTs of 0.5A degrees C or colder after 50 a, and in those of -0.5A degrees C or colder after 100 a. Furthermore, the total areal extent of permafrost would decrease from 2.57x10(5) km(2) at present to 1.84x10(5) km(2) after 50 a and to 1.29x10(5) km(2) after 100 a, i.e., a reduction of 28.4% and 49.8% in the permafrost area, respectively. Also the permafrost would degrade more substantially in the east than in the west. Regional warming and thinning of permafrost would also occur. The area of stable permafrost (mean annual ground temperature, or MAGTa <='1.0A degrees C) would decrease from present 1.07x10(5) to 8.8x10(4) km(2) after 50 a, and further decrease to 5.6x10(4) km(2) after 100 a. As a result, the unstable permafrost and seasonally frozen ground would expand, and the southern limit of permafrost would shift significantly northwards. The changes in the permafrost environment may adversely affect on ecological environments and engineering infrastructures in cold regions. Avoidance of unnecessary anthropogenic changes in permafrost conditions is a practical approach to protect the permafrost environment. |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| WOS关键词 | SOIL ; DEGRADATION ; EMISSIONS ; EROSION ; NORTH |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology |
| WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | SCIENCE PRESS |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000290575000011 |
| URI标识 | http://www.irgrid.ac.cn/handle/1471x/2556596 |
| 专题 | 寒区旱区环境与工程研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Jin HuiJun |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Frozen Soils Engn Cold & Arid Reg E, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China 2.NW Univ Nationalities, Lanzhou 730030, Peoples R China 3.Baiyin Hydraul Engn Designing Inst, Baiyin 730900, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Lab Remote Sensing & Geospatial Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China 5.Gansu Elect Power Design Inst, Lanzhou 730050, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Engn Res Inst, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wei Zhi,Jin HuiJun,Zhang JianMing,et al. Prediction of permafrost changes in Northeastern China under a changing climate[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,2011,54(6):924-935. |
| APA | Wei Zhi.,Jin HuiJun.,Zhang JianMing.,Yu ShaoPeng.,Han XuJun.,...&Chang XiaoLi.(2011).Prediction of permafrost changes in Northeastern China under a changing climate.SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,54(6),924-935. |
| MLA | Wei Zhi,et al."Prediction of permafrost changes in Northeastern China under a changing climate".SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES 54.6(2011):924-935. |
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来源：寒区旱区环境与工程研究所
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