Automatic Responses of Crop Stocks and Policies Buffer Climate Change Effects on Crop Markets and Price Volatility
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Thompson, Wyatt1; Lu, Yaqiong2; Gerlt, Scott1; Yang, Xianyu2,3; Campbell, J. Elliott4; Kueppers, Lara M.2,5,6; Snyder, Mark A.7 |
| 刊名 | ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2018-10-01 |
| 卷号 | 152页码:98-105 |
| 关键词 | Climate change Crop stocks Crop yields Price variability |
| ISSN号 | 0921-8009 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.04.015 |
| 通讯作者 | Thompson, Wyatt(thompsonw@missouri.edu) |
| 英文摘要 | Climate change has the potential to affect crop prices and price volatility. However, the economic models used in prior assessments largely do not include known, automatic, stabilizing factors. Crop storage can stabilize prices and U.S. crop policy tends to provide support that moves opposite prices. We quantify effects of circa 2050 climate forcing on the inter-annual variability of U.S. Corn Belt corn and soybean yields using statistical crop models and climate scenarios from regional and global climate models. Climate change generally reduces mean yields and increases the inter-annual variability of yields in the Midwestern U.S. Using these yield impacts and an economic model with automatic market stabilizers, we find only modest increases in price volatility. Although individual producers and states are negatively affected by the yield reductions, the aggregate effect for all corn and soybean producer returns can be positive because of price increases. Moreover, agricultural policies based on price levels or revenue variation offset some of the impacts of market variation on farm income. Our results differ from other recent results and temper concerns that increasing climate instability necessarily translates to greater uncertainty about agricultural commodity uses, including as food and biofuels, in the near future. |
| 收录类别 | SCI ; SSCI |
| WOS关键词 | WATER-QUALITY IMPROVEMENTS ; ECONOMIC-IMPACTS ; TECHNOLOGICAL-PROGRESS ; US AGRICULTURE ; YIELDS ; VARIABILITY |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Business & Economics |
| WOS类目 | Ecology ; Economics ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000440118700010 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV |
| URI标识 | http://www.irgrid.ac.cn/handle/1471x/2557789 |
| 专题 | 寒区旱区环境与工程研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Thompson, Wyatt |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Missouri, Agr & Appl Econ Dept, 200 Mumford Hall, Columbia, MO 65211 USA 2.Univ Calif Merced, Sierra Nevada Res Inst, 5200 North Lake Rd,Sci & Engn 277, Merced, CA 95343 USA 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Cold & Arid Reg Environm & Engn Res Inst, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China 4.Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Environm Studies Dept, 1156 High St, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA 5.Univ Calif Berkeley, Energy & Resources Grp, 310 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA 6.Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Climate & Ecosyst Sci Div, 1 Cyclotron Rd,MC 74-316C, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA 7.Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Climate Change & Impacts Lab, 1156 High St, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Thompson, Wyatt,Lu, Yaqiong,Gerlt, Scott,et al. Automatic Responses of Crop Stocks and Policies Buffer Climate Change Effects on Crop Markets and Price Volatility[J]. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,2018,152:98-105. |
| APA | Thompson, Wyatt.,Lu, Yaqiong.,Gerlt, Scott.,Yang, Xianyu.,Campbell, J. Elliott.,...&Snyder, Mark A..(2018).Automatic Responses of Crop Stocks and Policies Buffer Climate Change Effects on Crop Markets and Price Volatility.ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,152,98-105. |
| MLA | Thompson, Wyatt,et al."Automatic Responses of Crop Stocks and Policies Buffer Climate Change Effects on Crop Markets and Price Volatility".ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS 152(2018):98-105. |
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来源：寒区旱区环境与工程研究所
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