Spatiotemporal Changes in Active Layer Thickness under Contemporary and Projected Climate in the Northern Hemisphere
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Peng, Xiaoqing1; Zhang, Tingjun1; Frauenfeld, Oliver W.2; Wang, Kang3; Luo, Dongliang4; Cao, Bin1; Su, Hang1; Jin, Huijun4; Wu, Qingbai4 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2018 |
| 卷号 | 31期号:1页码:251-266 |
| ISSN号 | 0894-8755 |
| DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0721.1 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Tingjun(tjzhang@lzu.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Variability of active layer thickness (ALT) in permafrost regions is critical for assessments of climate change, water resources, and engineering applications. Detailed knowledge of ALT variations is also important for studies on ecosystem, hydrological, and geomorphological processes in cold regions. The primary objective of this study is therefore to provide a comprehensive 1971-2000 climatology of ALT and its changes across the entire Northern Hemisphere from 1850 through 2100. To accomplish this, in situ observations, the Stefan solution based on a thawing index, and the edaphic factor (E factor) are employed to calculate ALT. The thawing index is derived from (i) the multimodel ensemble mean of 16 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) over 1850-2005, (ii) three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) for 2006-2100, and (iii) Climatic Research Unit (CRU) gridded observations for 1901-2014. The results show significant spatial variability in in situ ALT that generally ranges from 40 to 320 cm, with some extreme values of 900 cm in the Alps. The differences in the ALT climatology between the three RCPs and the historical experiments ranged from 0 to 200 cm. The biggest increases, of 120-200 cm, are on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, while the smallest increases of less than 20 cm are in Alaska. Averaged over all permafrost regions, mean ALT from CMIP5 increased significantly at 0.57 +/- 0.04 cm decade(-1) during 1850-2005, while 2006-2100 projections show ALT increases of 0.77 +/- 0.08 cm decade(-1) for RCP2.6, 2.56 +/- 0.07 cm decade(-1) for RCP4.5, and 6.51 +/- 0.07 cm decade(-1) for RCP8.5. |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| WOS关键词 | SEASONAL SNOW COVER ; HEIHE RIVER-BASIN ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; MACKENZIE VALLEY ; THERMAL REGIME ; WESTERN CHINA ; SEA-ICE ; PERMAFROST ; REGIONS ; CMIP5 |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000429528800014 |
| URI标识 | http://www.irgrid.ac.cn/handle/1471x/2558145 |
| 专题 | 寒区旱区环境与工程研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Tingjun |
| 作者单位 | 1.Lanzhou Univ, Coll Earth & Environm Sci, Minist Educ, Key Lab Western Chinas Environm Syst, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China 2.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Geog, College Stn, TX USA 3.Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Frozen Soil Engn, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Peng, Xiaoqing,Zhang, Tingjun,Frauenfeld, Oliver W.,et al. Spatiotemporal Changes in Active Layer Thickness under Contemporary and Projected Climate in the Northern Hemisphere[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(1):251-266. |
| APA | Peng, Xiaoqing.,Zhang, Tingjun.,Frauenfeld, Oliver W..,Wang, Kang.,Luo, Dongliang.,...&Wu, Qingbai.(2018).Spatiotemporal Changes in Active Layer Thickness under Contemporary and Projected Climate in the Northern Hemisphere.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(1),251-266. |
| MLA | Peng, Xiaoqing,et al."Spatiotemporal Changes in Active Layer Thickness under Contemporary and Projected Climate in the Northern Hemisphere".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.1(2018):251-266. |
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来源：寒区旱区环境与工程研究所
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