An improved nonstationary model for flood frequency analysis and its implication for the Three Gorges Dam, China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Dong, Qianjin1,2; Zhang, Xu1; Lall, Upmanu3; Sang, Yan-Fang4 ; Xie, Ping1
|
| 刊名 | HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES
 |
| 出版日期 | 2019-05-11 |
| 页码 | 11 |
| 关键词 | nonstationary model flood frequency analysis copula function teleconnection Three Gorges Dam China |
| ISSN号 | 0262-6667 |
| DOI | 10.1080/02626667.2019.1596274 |
| 通讯作者 | Xie, Ping(pxie@whu.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | This study proposes an improved nonstationary model for flood frequency analysis by investigating the relationship between flood peak and flood volume, using the Three Gorges Dam (TGD), China, for verification. First, the generalized additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) is used as the prior distribution. Then, under Bayesian theory, the prior distribution is updated using the conditional distribution, which is derived from the copula function. The results show that the improvement of the proposed model is significant compared with the GAMLSS-based prior distribution. Meanwhile, selection of a suitable prior distribution has a significant effect on the results of the improvement. For applications to the TGD, the nonstationary model can obviously increase the engineering management benefits and reduce the perceived risks of large floods. This study provides guidance for the dynamic management of hydraulic engineering under nonstationary conditions. |
| WOS关键词 | RIVER-BASIN ; EXTREME RAINFALL ; RETURN PERIOD ; POYANG LAKE ; CLIMATE ; COPULA ; PRECIPITATION ; DESIGN ; RISK ; STATIONARITY |
| 资助项目 | National Key R&D Programme of China[2016YFC0402708] ; National Science Foundation of China[51439007] ; National Science Foundation of China[91647119] ; National Science Foundation of China[91547205] ; Innovation group of Hubei Natural Science Foundation[2017CFA015] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS[2017074] |
| WOS研究方向 | Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000470356900001 |
| 出版者 | TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD |
| 资助机构 | National Key R&D Programme of China ; National Science Foundation of China ; Innovation group of Hubei Natural Science Foundation ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/59012]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Xie, Ping |
| 作者单位 | 1.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China 2.Wuhan Univ, bHubei Prov Key Lab Water Syst Sci Sponge City Co, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China 3.Columbia Univ, Columbia Water Ctr, New York, NY USA 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dong, Qianjin,Zhang, Xu,Lall, Upmanu,et al. An improved nonstationary model for flood frequency analysis and its implication for the Three Gorges Dam, China[J]. HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES,2019:11. |
| APA | Dong, Qianjin,Zhang, Xu,Lall, Upmanu,Sang, Yan-Fang,&Xie, Ping.(2019).An improved nonstationary model for flood frequency analysis and its implication for the Three Gorges Dam, China.HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES,11. |
| MLA | Dong, Qianjin,et al."An improved nonstationary model for flood frequency analysis and its implication for the Three Gorges Dam, China".HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES (2019):11. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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