Redefining the climate niche of plant species: A novel approach for realistic predictions of species distribution under climate change
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Ferrarini, Alessandro1; Dai, Junhu2 ; Bai, Yang3; Alatalo, Juha M.4,5
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| 刊名 | SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
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| 出版日期 | 2019-06-25 |
| 卷号 | 671页码:1086-1093 |
| 关键词 | Climate change compensation Network-like climate niche Non-parametric Bayesian network North America Reverse climate simulations Silene acaulis L |
| ISSN号 | 0048-9697 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.353 |
| 通讯作者 | Alatalo, Juha M.(jalatalo@qu.edu.qa) |
| 英文摘要 | Climate change is increasingly affecting plant species distributions, in ways that need to be predicted. Here, in a novel prediction approach, we developed the relevant climate niche (RCN) of plants, based on thorough selection of climate variables and implementation of a non-parametric Bayesian network for climate simulations. The RCN was conditionalized to project the fate of Silene acaulis in North America under moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5; RCP4.5) and extreme(RCP8.5) short-term (2011-2040) climate scenarios. We identified a three-variable climate hypervolume for S. acaulis. Within 20 years >50% of current locations of the species will be outside the defined climate hypervolume. It could compensate for climate change in 2011-2040 through a poleward shift of 0.97 degrees C or an upshift of 138 m in the RCP4.5 scenario, and 1.29 degrees C or 184 m in the RCP8.5 scenario. These results demonstrate the benefits of redefining the climate niche of plant species in the form of a user-defined, data-validated, hierarchical network comprising only variables that are consistent with species distribution. Advantages include realism and interpretability in niche modeling, and new opportunities for predicting future species distributions under climate change. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| WOS关键词 | SILENE-ACAULIS ; CUSHION PLANT ; IMPACTS ; ALPINE ; RESPONSES ; POPULATION ; MODELS |
| 资助项目 | Qatar Petroleum[QUEX-ESC-QP-RD-18/19] ; National Key R&D Program of China[2018YFA0606100] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000466090500110 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV |
| 资助机构 | Qatar Petroleum ; National Key R&D Program of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/59721]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Alatalo, Juha M. |
| 作者单位 | 1.Via G Saragat 4, I-43123 Parma, Italy 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Xishuangbanna Trop Bot Garden, Mengla 666303, Yunnan, Peoples R China 4.Qatar Univ, Coll Arts & Sci, Dept Biol & Environm Sci, POB 2713, Doha, Qatar 5.Qatar Univ, Environm Sci Ctr, POB 2713, Doha, Qatar |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ferrarini, Alessandro,Dai, Junhu,Bai, Yang,et al. Redefining the climate niche of plant species: A novel approach for realistic predictions of species distribution under climate change[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2019,671:1086-1093. |
| APA | Ferrarini, Alessandro,Dai, Junhu,Bai, Yang,&Alatalo, Juha M..(2019).Redefining the climate niche of plant species: A novel approach for realistic predictions of species distribution under climate change.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,671,1086-1093. |
| MLA | Ferrarini, Alessandro,et al."Redefining the climate niche of plant species: A novel approach for realistic predictions of species distribution under climate change".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 671(2019):1086-1093. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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