Combined Forecasting of Rainfall Based on Fuzzy Clustering and Cross Entropy
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Men, Baohui1; Long, Rishang2; Li, Yangsong1; Liu, Huanlong1; Tian, Wei3,4; Wu, Zhijian1 |
| 刊名 | ENTROPY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2017-12-01 |
| 卷号 | 19期号:12页码:15 |
| 关键词 | rainfall forecast cross entropy ant colony fuzzy clustering combined forecast |
| ISSN号 | 1099-4300 |
| DOI | 10.3390/e19120694 |
| 通讯作者 | Men, Baohui(menbh@ncepu.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Rainfall is an essential index to measure drought, and it is dependent upon various parameters including geographical environment, air temperature and pressure. The nonlinear nature of climatic variables leads to problems such as poor accuracy and instability in traditional forecasting methods. In this paper, the combined forecasting method based on data mining technology and cross entropy is proposed to forecast the rainfall with full consideration of the time-effectiveness of historical data. In view of the flaws of the fuzzy clustering method which is easy to fall into local optimal solution and low speed of operation, the ant colony algorithm is adopted to overcome these shortcomings and, as a result, refine the model. The method for determining weights is also improved by using the cross entropy. Besides, the forecast is conducted by analyzing the weighted average rainfall based on Thiessen polygon in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Since the predictive errors are calculated, the results show that improved ant colony fuzzy clustering can effectively select historical data and enhance the accuracy of prediction so that the damage caused by extreme weather events like droughts and floods can be greatly lessened and even kept at bay. |
| WOS关键词 | ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORK ; COMBINATION ; MODELS |
| 资助项目 | National Key R&D Program of China[2016YFC0401406] ; Famous Teachers Cultivation planning for Teaching of North China Electric Power University ; Education Reform Project of North China Electric Power University (Beijing Department)[2014JG57] |
| WOS研究方向 | Physics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000419007900063 |
| 出版者 | MDPI AG |
| 资助机构 | National Key R&D Program of China ; Famous Teachers Cultivation planning for Teaching of North China Electric Power University ; Education Reform Project of North China Electric Power University (Beijing Department) |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/60499]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Men, Baohui |
| 作者单位 | 1.North China Elect Power Univ, Beijing Key Lab Energy Safety & Clean Utilizat, Renewable Energy Inst, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China 2.North China Elect Power Univ, State Key Lab New Energy Power Syst, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Men, Baohui,Long, Rishang,Li, Yangsong,et al. Combined Forecasting of Rainfall Based on Fuzzy Clustering and Cross Entropy[J]. ENTROPY,2017,19(12):15. |
| APA | Men, Baohui,Long, Rishang,Li, Yangsong,Liu, Huanlong,Tian, Wei,&Wu, Zhijian.(2017).Combined Forecasting of Rainfall Based on Fuzzy Clustering and Cross Entropy.ENTROPY,19(12),15. |
| MLA | Men, Baohui,et al."Combined Forecasting of Rainfall Based on Fuzzy Clustering and Cross Entropy".ENTROPY 19.12(2017):15. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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