Rice yield development and the shrinking yield gaps in China, 1981-2008
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Chen, Yi1; Wang, Pin2; Zhang, Zhao1; Tao, Fulu3,4,5 ; Wei, Xing1
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| 刊名 | REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
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| 出版日期 | 2017-12-01 |
| 卷号 | 17期号:8页码:2397-2408 |
| 关键词 | Crop model Yield gap Yield trends Climate change Food security |
| ISSN号 | 1436-3798 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s10113-017-1168-7 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Zhao(zhangzhao@bnu.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Increasing population, limited land resources, and the demand for environmental protection highlight the urgency of improving crop yield on the limited cultivated land. To identify a possible food supply under a sustainable intensification of agricultural production, it is necessary to accurately estimate yield potentials and yield gaps. Here, we used a well-validated, large-scale process-based crop model, Model to capture the Crop-weather relationship over a Large Area for rice, and an ensemble model simulation method to estimate the yield potential across the rice planting area of China. We further evaluated the spatiotemporal patterns of actual yield, yield potential, and yield gap over the past three decades. Rice yield showed an increasing trend in more than 95% of the studied counties. However, 48.3% of the counties were already experiencing yield stagnation. The yield potential in northeast China had increased over the past three decades by 20-40 kg/ha per year because of the increase in temperature, while the increased temperature and decreased solar radiation reduced the yield potentials in other regions by 10-30 kg/ha per year. Because of changes in the actual yield and yield potential, the yield gap decreased in 93.4% of the counties by an average of 0.5-2% per year, resulting in less room for yield improvement. Additionally, 65.9% of the counties had nearly approached their yield ceilings (> 70% of the yield potential). Our study highlights that popularizing advanced management technologies to close yield gaps and breeding climate-resilient cultivars to expand yield potentials should be of equal importance for the sustainable development of agricultural production and food security. |
| WOS关键词 | IRRIGATED RICE ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; TEMPERATURE STRESS ; GREENHOUSE GASES ; WINTER-WHEAT ; MODEL ; PRODUCTIVITY ; UNCERTAINTIES ; AGRICULTURE ; POTENTIALS |
| 资助项目 | Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China[31561143003] ; Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571493] ; Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571088] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFD0300201] ; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000415136200018 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER HEIDELBERG |
| 资助机构 | Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/61237]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Zhao |
| 作者单位 | 1.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Hazards, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 2.Hangzhou Normal Univ, Inst Remote Sensing & Earth Sci, Hangzhou 311121, Zhejiang, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.Nat Resources Inst Finland Luke, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chen, Yi,Wang, Pin,Zhang, Zhao,et al. Rice yield development and the shrinking yield gaps in China, 1981-2008[J]. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE,2017,17(8):2397-2408. |
| APA | Chen, Yi,Wang, Pin,Zhang, Zhao,Tao, Fulu,&Wei, Xing.(2017).Rice yield development and the shrinking yield gaps in China, 1981-2008.REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE,17(8),2397-2408. |
| MLA | Chen, Yi,et al."Rice yield development and the shrinking yield gaps in China, 1981-2008".REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE 17.8(2017):2397-2408. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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