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The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Wang, Enli1; Martre, Pierre2; Zhao, Zhigan1,3; Ewert, Frank4,5; Maiorano, Andrea2,42; Roetter, Reimund P.6,7,32; Kimball, Bruce A.8; Ottman, Michael J.9; Wall, Gerard W.8; White, Jeffrey W.8
刊名NATURE PLANTS
出版日期2017-08-01
卷号3期号:8页码:11
ISSN号2055-026X
DOI10.1038/nplants.2017.102
通讯作者Wang, Enli(Enli.Wang@csiro.au) ; Martre, Pierre(pierre.martre@inra.fr)
英文摘要Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for > 50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 degrees C to 33 degrees C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% ( 42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections.
WOS关键词WINTER-WHEAT ; SPRING WHEAT ; PHENOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT ; DEVELOPMENTAL PROCESSES ; PROTEIN-COMPOSITION ; LEAF APPEARANCE ; SOWING DATES ; MODEL ; SIMULATION ; GROWTH
资助项目CSIRO project 'Enhanced modelling of genotype by environment interactions' ; project 'Advancing crop yield while reducing the use of water and nitrogen' ; CSIRO ; Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) ; China Scholarship Council through the CSIRO ; Chinese Ministry of Education PhD Research Program ; FACCE JPI MACSUR project through the metaprogram Adaptation of Agriculture[031A103B] ; Marie-Curie FP7 COFUND People Programme, through the award of an AgreenSkills fellowship[PCOFUND-GA-2010-267196] ; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ; CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) ; CGIAR Research Program on Wheat and the Wheat Initiative ; USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture[32011-68002-30191] ; KULUNDA project[01LL0905 L] ; FACCE MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)[031A103B] ; FACCE MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)[2812ERA115] ; German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (Project: PARI) ; FACCE MACSUR project by the Danish Strategic Research Council ; FACCE MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) ; FACCE MACSUR project funded through the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41071030] ; Helmholtz project 'REKLIM-Regional Climate Change: Causes and Effects' Topic 9: 'Climate Change and Air Quality' ; CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS) ; Australian Grains Research and Development Corporation ; Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources Victoria, Australia ; Texas AgriLife Research, Texas AM University ; USDA-NIFA[2015-68007-23133]
WOS研究方向Plant Sciences
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000406850200001
出版者NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
资助机构CSIRO project 'Enhanced modelling of genotype by environment interactions' ; project 'Advancing crop yield while reducing the use of water and nitrogen' ; CSIRO ; Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) ; China Scholarship Council through the CSIRO ; Chinese Ministry of Education PhD Research Program ; FACCE JPI MACSUR project through the metaprogram Adaptation of Agriculture ; Marie-Curie FP7 COFUND People Programme, through the award of an AgreenSkills fellowship ; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ; CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) ; CGIAR Research Program on Wheat and the Wheat Initiative ; USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture ; KULUNDA project ; FACCE MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) ; German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (Project: PARI) ; FACCE MACSUR project by the Danish Strategic Research Council ; FACCE MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) ; FACCE MACSUR project funded through the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Helmholtz project 'REKLIM-Regional Climate Change: Causes and Effects' Topic 9: 'Climate Change and Air Quality' ; CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS) ; Australian Grains Research and Development Corporation ; Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources Victoria, Australia ; Texas AgriLife Research, Texas AM University ; USDA-NIFA
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/61438]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Wang, Enli; Martre, Pierre
作者单位1.CSIRO, Agr & Food, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
2.Montpellier SupAgro, INRA, UMR LEPSE, 2 Pl Viala, F-34060 Montpellier, France
3.China Agr Univ, Coll Agron & Biotechnol, Beijing 100193, Peoples R China
4.Univ Bonn, Inst Crop Sci & Resource Conservat INRES, D-53115 Bonn, Germany
5.Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res, Inst Landscape Syst Anal, D-15374 Muncheberg, Germany
6.Univ Gottingen, Dept Crop Sci, Trop Plant Prod & Agr Syst Modelling TROPAGS, D-37077 Gottingen, Germany
7.Univ Gottingen, Ctr Biodivers & Sustainable Land Use CBL, Busgenweg 1, D-37077 Gottingen, Germany
8.USDA, Agr Res Serv, US Arid Land Agr Res Ctr, Maricopa, AZ 85138 USA
9.Univ Arizona, Sch Plant Sci, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA
10.Int Maize & Wheat Improvement Ctr CIMMYT, Global Wheat Program, Mexico City, DF, Mexico
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Wang, Enli,Martre, Pierre,Zhao, Zhigan,et al. The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions[J]. NATURE PLANTS,2017,3(8):11.
APA Wang, Enli.,Martre, Pierre.,Zhao, Zhigan.,Ewert, Frank.,Maiorano, Andrea.,...&Asseng, Senthold.(2017).The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions.NATURE PLANTS,3(8),11.
MLA Wang, Enli,et al."The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions".NATURE PLANTS 3.8(2017):11.

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来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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