中国科学院机构知识库网格
Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid
Spatio-temporal patterns of winter wheat yield potential and yield gap during the past three decades in North China

文献类型:期刊论文

作者Chen, Yi1; Zhang, Zhao1; Tao, Fulu2; Wang, Pin1; Wei, Xing1
刊名FIELD CROPS RESEARCH
出版日期2017-05-01
卷号206页码:11-20
关键词Yield potential Food security Climate change Agronomic management Adaptation
ISSN号0378-4290
DOI10.1016/j.fcr.2017.02.012
通讯作者Zhang, Zhao(zhangzhao@bnu.edu.cn)
英文摘要To develop strategies for sustainable intensification of agricultural production, it is necessary to obtain precise and spatially explicit knowledge of crop potential and yield gap at a large scale. In this study, we estimated the yield potential for winter wheat by county during the period of 1981-2008 in North China using an ensemble simulation of a well validated large-scale crop model, MCWLA-Wheat, for each 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees grid. An ensemble simulation was used to better represent the heterogeneous conditions in climate, soil and cultivars over a large area. The spatio-temporal patterns of winter wheat actual yield, yield potential and yield gap were evaluated according to the simulation results. We found that more than 90% of counties had experienced an overall increase in wheat yield. However, 30.1% of counties have already experienced yield stagnation. The mean yield potential ranged generally from approximately 5000 to 8000 kg/ha. The yield potential under water-limited conditions showed considerably smaller values, ranging from about 2000 to 5000 kg/ha. Yield gaps in about 62% of counties were generally lower than 40% of potential yields, indicating a relatively small potential for yield improvement. During the study period, yield potential decreased in most counties because of a significant increase in temperature and decrease in solar radiation. In contrast, the increase of yield potential in the west and southeast areas could be attributed to the increase of solar radiation during the growing season. Overall, yield gap in the past decades showed a substantial decrease due to the changing pattern of yield potential and the rapid increase of actual yield, especially in the North China Plain, with a rate of 1-3% per year. These patterns imply a shrinking of space for further yield improvement. Our results highlight the necessity of applying advanced management technologies to realize a high yield, as well as adopting technical progress and policy support to overcome the yield bottleneck. Moreover, breeding climate-resilient cultivars to further increase yield potential should be of equal importance. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
WOS关键词CROP YIELD ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FOOD SECURITY ; PLAIN ; TEMPERATURE ; MANAGEMENT ; MODEL ; PRODUCTIVITY ; IRRIGATION ; STAGNATION
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571088] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571493] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFD0300201] ; Fund for Creative Research Groups of National Natural Science Foundation of China[41621061] ; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology of Beijing Normal University[2014-ZY-06]
WOS研究方向Agriculture
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000400532300002
出版者ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Fund for Creative Research Groups of National Natural Science Foundation of China ; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology of Beijing Normal University
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/62674]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Zhang, Zhao
作者单位1.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resources Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Chen, Yi,Zhang, Zhao,Tao, Fulu,et al. Spatio-temporal patterns of winter wheat yield potential and yield gap during the past three decades in North China[J]. FIELD CROPS RESEARCH,2017,206:11-20.
APA Chen, Yi,Zhang, Zhao,Tao, Fulu,Wang, Pin,&Wei, Xing.(2017).Spatio-temporal patterns of winter wheat yield potential and yield gap during the past three decades in North China.FIELD CROPS RESEARCH,206,11-20.
MLA Chen, Yi,et al."Spatio-temporal patterns of winter wheat yield potential and yield gap during the past three decades in North China".FIELD CROPS RESEARCH 206(2017):11-20.

入库方式: OAI收割

来源:地理科学与资源研究所

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