China's Rare Earths Production Forecasting and Sustainable Development Policy Implications
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, Xibo1; Yao, Mingtao2; Li, Jiashuo3; Zhang, Kexue4,5; Zhu, He6,7; Zheng, Minsi8 |
| 刊名 | SUSTAINABILITY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2017-06-01 |
| 卷号 | 9期号:6页码:14 |
| 关键词 | rare earths sustainable development production forecast system dynamics model policy recommendations |
| ISSN号 | 2071-1050 |
| DOI | 10.3390/su9061003 |
| 通讯作者 | Li, Jiashuo(lijiashuo@hust.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Because of their unique physical and chemical properties, Rare earth elements (REEs) perform important functions in our everyday lives, with use in a range of products. Recently, the study of China's rare earth elements production has become a hot topic of worldwide interest, because of its dominant position in global rare earth elements supply, and an increasing demand for rare earth elements due to the constant use of rare earth elements in high-tech manufacturing industries. At the same time, as an exhaustible resource, the sustainable development of rare earth elements has received extensive attention. However, most of the study results are based on a qualitative analysis of rare earth elements distribution and production capacity, with few studies using quantitative modeling. To achieve reliable results with more factors being taken into consideration, this paper applies the generic multivariant system dynamics model to forecast China's rare earth elements production trend and Hubbert peak, using Vensim software based on the Hubbert model. The results show that the peak of China's rare earth elements production will appear by 2040, and that production will slowly decline afterwards. Based on the results, the paper proposes some policy recommendations for the sustainable development of China's-and the world's-rare earth elements market and rare earth-related industries. |
| WOS关键词 | MULTICYCLIC HUBBERT MODEL ; COAL PRODUCTION ; PEAK ; ELEMENTS ; CURVES ; TRENDS ; US |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41601596] ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[2017M610043] ; project of Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment of Ministry of Land and Resource[CCA2016.09] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000404133200134 |
| 出版者 | MDPI AG |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; project of Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment of Ministry of Land and Resource |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/62992]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Li, Jiashuo |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Software, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Natl Dev & Reform Commiss, Energy Res Inst, Beijing 10038, Peoples R China 3.Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Energy & Power Engn, Dept New Energy Sci & Engn, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China 4.China Coal Res Inst, Intelligent Control Technol Branch, Beijing 100013, Peoples R China 5.China Univ Min & Technol, State Key Lab Geomechan & Deep Underground Engn, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 7.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 8.Tsinghua Univ, Inst Econ, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Xibo,Yao, Mingtao,Li, Jiashuo,et al. China's Rare Earths Production Forecasting and Sustainable Development Policy Implications[J]. SUSTAINABILITY,2017,9(6):14. |
| APA | Wang, Xibo,Yao, Mingtao,Li, Jiashuo,Zhang, Kexue,Zhu, He,&Zheng, Minsi.(2017).China's Rare Earths Production Forecasting and Sustainable Development Policy Implications.SUSTAINABILITY,9(6),14. |
| MLA | Wang, Xibo,et al."China's Rare Earths Production Forecasting and Sustainable Development Policy Implications".SUSTAINABILITY 9.6(2017):14. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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