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Estimating the in-use cement stock in China: 1920-2013

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Cao, Zhi1; Shen, Lei1,2; Liu, Litao1; Zhao, Jianan1,2; Zhong, Shuai1; Kong, Hanxiao1,2; Sun, Yanzhi1,2
刊名RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING
出版日期2017-07-01
卷号122页码:21-31
关键词Cement In-use stock Dynamic MFA Uncertainty analysis Monte Carlo
ISSN号0921-3449
DOI10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.01.021
通讯作者Shen, Lei(shenlei0603@gmail.com) ; Liu, Litao(liult@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要Cement provides a foundational function for buildings and infrastructures in the modern society. Huge amounts of cement have been consumed during the rapid urbanization process in China. Understanding the trajectory of the in-use cement stock could gain insight into the cement inflow, waste flow and associated environmental impacts. However, an economy-wide estimation for Chinese in-use cement stock is still lacking. Using the dynamic MFA, this paper seeks to provide a long-period (1920-2013) estimate for Chinese in-use cement stock in three branches (i.e., buildings, infrastructure facilities and agriculture facilities). To evaluate uncertainties inherent in the in-use cement stock, the Monte Carlo method is adopted here to calculate the confidence intervals of the results. The simulation results demonstrate that, at the end of 2013, Chinese in-use cement stock has reached 21.5 billion metric tons whilst in-use cement stocks of the building, infrastructure and agriculture sector are 17.3, 3.4 and 0.8 billion metric tons, respectively. During the recent decade, the per capita in-use cement has been experiencing a sharp increase from 2.1t/capita in 1992-15.8t/capita in 2013. The exponential growth of Chinese in-use cement stock underlines the need for prolonging the lifetime and reducing cement intensity of buildings and infrastructures to realize dematerialization in China. The estimation on the historical evolution of the in-use cement stock could lay a solid foundation for predicting the future cement demand and related environmental impacts. In addition, robustness of the estimation method has been validated by the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
WOS关键词MATERIAL FLOW-ANALYSIS ; DYNAMIC-ANALYSIS ; ALUMINUM STOCKS ; CO2 EMISSIONS ; STEEL CYCLE ; MATERIALS DEMAND ; UNITED-STATES ; ENERGY USE ; IRON ; COPPER
资助项目Strategic Priority Research Program - Climate Change: Carbon Budget and Related Issues of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA05010400] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41271547] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41401644] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41501604]
WOS研究方向Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000401881300003
出版者ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
资助机构Strategic Priority Research Program - Climate Change: Carbon Budget and Related Issues of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/64488]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Shen, Lei; Liu, Litao
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, 11A Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Cao, Zhi,Shen, Lei,Liu, Litao,et al. Estimating the in-use cement stock in China: 1920-2013[J]. RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING,2017,122:21-31.
APA Cao, Zhi.,Shen, Lei.,Liu, Litao.,Zhao, Jianan.,Zhong, Shuai.,...&Sun, Yanzhi.(2017).Estimating the in-use cement stock in China: 1920-2013.RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING,122,21-31.
MLA Cao, Zhi,et al."Estimating the in-use cement stock in China: 1920-2013".RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 122(2017):21-31.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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