Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Hattermann, F. F.1; Krysanova, V.1; Gosling, S. N.2; Dankers, R.3; Daggupati, P.4; Donnelly, C.5; Floerke, M.6; Huang, S.1; Motovilov, Y.7; Buda, S.8 |
| 刊名 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2017-04-01 |
| 卷号 | 141期号:3页码:561-576 |
| ISSN号 | 0165-0009 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s10584-016-1829-4 |
| 通讯作者 | Hattermann, F. F.(hattermann@pik-potsdam.de) |
| 英文摘要 | Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity to climate variability and climate change is comparable for impact models designed for either scale. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of the two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases, but have distinct differences in other cases, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability. Whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models calibrated and validated against observed discharge should be used. |
| WOS关键词 | WATER ; ENSEMBLE ; MANAGEMENT ; AUSTRALIA ; WETLANDS ; RUNOFF ; SWIM |
| 资助项目 | German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)[01LS1201A] ; Global Runoff Data Centre ; Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan[S-10] ; Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI[16H06291] ; Program for Risk Information on Climate Change - Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology-Japan (MEXT) |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000396824300014 |
| 资助机构 | German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) ; Global Runoff Data Centre ; Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan ; Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI ; Program for Risk Information on Climate Change - Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology-Japan (MEXT) |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/64659]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Hattermann, F. F. |
| 作者单位 | 1.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany 2.Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England 3.Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England 4.Univ Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada 5.Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, S-60176 Norrkoping, Sweden 6.Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, D-34125 Kassel, Germany 7.Russian Acad Sci, Inst Water Problems, Moscow, Russia 8.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China 9.Hohai Univ, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing, Peoples R China 10.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hattermann, F. F.,Krysanova, V.,Gosling, S. N.,et al. Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,141(3):561-576. |
| APA | Hattermann, F. F..,Krysanova, V..,Gosling, S. N..,Dankers, R..,Daggupati, P..,...&Samaniego, L..(2017).Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins.CLIMATIC CHANGE,141(3),561-576. |
| MLA | Hattermann, F. F.,et al."Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins".CLIMATIC CHANGE 141.3(2017):561-576. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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