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Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Liu, Bing1,2; Asseng, Senthold2; Muller, Christoph3; Ewert, Frank4,5; Elliott, Joshua6,7; Lobell, David B.8,9; Martre, Pierre10; Ruane, Alex C.6,11; Wallach, Daniel12; Jones, JamesW.2 |
| 刊名 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2016-12-01 |
| 卷号 | 6期号:12页码:1130-+ |
| ISSN号 | 1758-678X |
| DOI | 10.1038/NCLIMATE3115 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhu, Yan(yanzhu@njau.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 degrees C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security. |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WINTER-WHEAT ; CROP YIELDS ; HEAT ; CO2 ; TRENDS ; METAANALYSIS ; VARIABILITY ; SYSTEMS ; GROWTH |
| 资助项目 | National High-Tech Research and Development Program of China[2013AA100404] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31271616] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31611130182] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571088] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31561143003] ; National Research Foundation for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China[20120097110042] ; Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD) ; China Scholarship Council ; IFPRI through the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project ; CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) ; CGIAR Research Program on Wheat ; Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000389432200023 |
| 资助机构 | National High-Tech Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Research Foundation for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China ; Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD) ; China Scholarship Council ; IFPRI through the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project ; CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) ; CGIAR Research Program on Wheat ; Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/65530]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhu, Yan |
| 作者单位 | 1.Nanjing Agr Univ, Jiangsu Collaborat Innovat Ctr Modern Crop Prod, Jiangsu Key Lab Informat Agr, Natl Engn & Technol Ctr Informat Agr, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 2.Univ Florida, Agr & Biol Engn Dept, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA 3.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany 4.Univ Bonn, Inst Crop Sci & Resource Conservat INRES, D-53115 Bonn, Germany 5.Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res ZALF, D-15374 Muncheberg, Germany 6.Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY 10025 USA 7.Univ Chicago, Computat Inst, Chicago, IL 60637 USA 8.Stanford Univ, Dept Environm Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA 9.Stanford Univ, Ctr Food Secur & Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA 10.Montpellier SupAgro, INRA, UMR LEPSE, F-34060 Montpellier, France |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Bing,Asseng, Senthold,Muller, Christoph,et al. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2016,6(12):1130-+. |
| APA | Liu, Bing.,Asseng, Senthold.,Muller, Christoph.,Ewert, Frank.,Elliott, Joshua.,...&Zhu, Yan.(2016).Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,6(12),1130-+. |
| MLA | Liu, Bing,et al."Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 6.12(2016):1130-+. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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