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Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Neukom, Raphael1,2; Barboza, Luis A.3; Erb, Michael P.4; Shi, Feng5,6; Emile-Geay, Julien7; Evans, Michael N.8,9; Franke, Jorg1,2; Kaufman, Darrell S.4; Lucke, Lucie10; Rehfeld, Kira11,12
刊名NATURE GEOSCIENCE
出版日期2019-08-01
卷号12期号:8页码:643-+
ISSN号1752-0894
DOI10.1038/s41561-019-0400-0
英文摘要Multidecadal surface temperature changes may be forced by natural as well as anthropogenic factors, or arise unforced from the climate system. Distinguishing these factors is essential for estimating sensitivity to multiple climatic forcings and the amplitude of the unforced variability. Here we present 2,000-year-long global mean temperature reconstructions using seven different statistical methods that draw from a global collection of temperature-sensitive palaeoclimate records. Our reconstructions display synchronous multidecadal temperature fluctuations that are coherent with one another and with fully forced millennial model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 across the Common Era. A substantial portion of pre-industrial (1300-1800 CE) variability at multidecadal timescales is attributed to volcanic aerosol forcing. Reconstructions and simulations qualitatively agree on the amplitude of the unforced global mean multidecadal temperature variability, thereby increasing confidence in future projections of climate change on these timescales. The largest warming trends at timescales of 20 years and longer occur during the second half of the twentieth century, highlighting the unusual character of the warming in recent decades.
WOS关键词NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE TEMPERATURE ; LAST MILLENNIUM ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; PART I ; FIELD RECONSTRUCTION ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; VOLCANIC-ERUPTIONS ; SYSTEM MODELS ; PATTERNS ; RESOLUTION
资助项目US National Science Foundation ; Swiss Academy of Sciences ; Swiss NSF[PZ00P2_154802] ; DFG[RE3994-2/1] ; European Union[787574] ; NSFC[41877440] ; NSFC[41430531] ; NSFC[41690114] ; NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy[NE/P006752/1] ; Australian Research Council ; DELWP on Linkage Project[LP150100062] ; Melbourne Water ; Australian Bureau of Meteorology ; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes[CE170100023]
WOS研究方向Geology
语种英语
出版者NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
WOS记录号WOS:000477864200015
资助机构US National Science Foundation ; Swiss Academy of Sciences ; Swiss NSF ; DFG ; European Union ; NSFC ; NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy ; Australian Research Council ; DELWP on Linkage Project ; Melbourne Water ; Australian Bureau of Meteorology ; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes ; US National Science Foundation ; Swiss Academy of Sciences ; Swiss NSF ; DFG ; European Union ; NSFC ; NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy ; Australian Research Council ; DELWP on Linkage Project ; Melbourne Water ; Australian Bureau of Meteorology ; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes ; US National Science Foundation ; Swiss Academy of Sciences ; Swiss NSF ; DFG ; European Union ; NSFC ; NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy ; Australian Research Council ; DELWP on Linkage Project ; Melbourne Water ; Australian Bureau of Meteorology ; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes ; US National Science Foundation ; Swiss Academy of Sciences ; Swiss NSF ; DFG ; European Union ; NSFC ; NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy ; Australian Research Council ; DELWP on Linkage Project ; Melbourne Water ; Australian Bureau of Meteorology ; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes
源URL[http://ir.iggcas.ac.cn/handle/132A11/92972]  
专题地质与地球物理研究所_中国科学院新生代地质与环境重点实验室
通讯作者Neukom, Raphael
作者单位1.Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland
2.Univ Bern, Inst Geog, Bern, Switzerland
3.Univ Costa Rica, Escuela Matemat CIMPA, San Jose, Costa Rica
4.No Arizona Univ, Sch Earth & Sustainabil, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geol & Geophys, Key Lab Cenozo Geol & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China
6.CAS Ctr Excellence Life & Paleoenvironm, Beijing, Peoples R China
7.Univ Southern Calif, Dept Earth Sci, Los Angeles, CA USA
8.Univ Maryland, Dept Geol, College Pk, MD 20742 USA
9.Univ Maryland, ESSIC, College Pk, MD 20742 USA
10.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Neukom, Raphael,Barboza, Luis A.,Erb, Michael P.,et al. Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era[J]. NATURE GEOSCIENCE,2019,12(8):643-+.
APA Neukom, Raphael.,Barboza, Luis A..,Erb, Michael P..,Shi, Feng.,Emile-Geay, Julien.,...&von Gunten, Lucien.(2019).Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era.NATURE GEOSCIENCE,12(8),643-+.
MLA Neukom, Raphael,et al."Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era".NATURE GEOSCIENCE 12.8(2019):643-+.

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来源：地质与地球物理研究所

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