Using GM (1,1) models to predict groundwater level in the lower reaches of Tarim River: A demonstration at Yingsu section
文献类型：会议论文
| 作者 | Xu ; Jianhua1 ; Chen ; Yaning2 ; Li ; Weihong2 |
| 出版日期 | 2008 |
| 会议名称 | 5th International Conference on Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery, FSKD |
| 会议日期 | 2008 |
| 会议地点 | Jinan, Shandong, China |
| 关键词 | Cybernetics - Forecasting - Fuzzy logic - Fuzzy systems - Granular materials - Groundwater - Rivers - System theory - Underground reservoirs - Accuracy tests - Complex systems - Grey forecasting - Grey system theories - Grey systems - Groundwater levels - Monitoring wells - Tarim rivers - Time lags - White colors |
| 页码 | 668-672 |
| 中文摘要 | Grey System theory is a multidisciplinary theory dealing with those systems for which we lack information, which uses a black-grey-white color spectrum to describe a complex system whose characteristics are only partially known or known with uncertainty. From the point of view of grey system theory, the dynamic of groundwater level in the lower reaches of Tarim River is typical grey system, which maybe provides us one of methods to approach the problem. As an attempt, through demonstration at Yingsu section, the paper has comparatively studied the grey forecasting models to predict the groundwater level in the lower reaches of Tarim River. The conclusions are: (1) The grey forecasting models, which include equal and unequal time lag GM (1,1) model, are applicable models to predict the groundwater level in lower reaches of Tarim River. The accuracy test parameters, P and C for equal and unequal time lag GM (1,1) model both achieved the desired impact for prediction. (2) The forecasted depth of groundwater for each well by unequal time lag GM (1,1) model is somewhat less than that by equal time lag GM (1,1) model. If the average of forecasted depth of groundwater by the two kind models is regarded as the predicted result, the depth of groundwater of monitoring well C4, C5 and C6 in 2007 will be 4.1696 m, 4.317 m and 4.4839 m respectively, and that in 2008 will be 4.0612 m, 4.2308 m and 4.3604 m respectively. © 2008 IEEE. (11 refs.) |
| 收录类别 | EI |
| 会议录 | Proceedings - 5th International Conference on Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery, FSKD 2008
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| ISBN号 | 13: 9780769533056 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/10772]  |
| 专题 | 新疆生态与地理研究所_中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所(2010年以前数据) |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xu,Jianhua1,Chen,et al. Using GM (1,1) models to predict groundwater level in the lower reaches of Tarim River: A demonstration at Yingsu section[C]. 见:5th International Conference on Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery, FSKD. Jinan, Shandong, China. 2008. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：新疆生态与地理研究所
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