新疆塔里木河流域水资源承载力评价研究
文献类型：学位论文
| 作者 | 孟丽红 |
| 学位类别 | 博士 |
| 答辩日期 | 2009 |
| 授予单位 | 中国科学院．新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| 导师 | 陈亚宁，中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| 关键词 | 水资源承载力 |
| 其他题名 | Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang |
| 中文摘要 | 水资源承载力是一个国家或地区持续发展过程中各种自然资源承载力的重要组成部分，是自然资源承载力的一部分。它对一个国家或地区综合发展和发展规模的确定有至关重要的意义。尤其对于水资源短缺的干旱、半干旱地区，水资源承载力的分析计算和评价已成为寻求区域可持续发展道路的重要依据。 本论文对水资源承载力的研究现状和进展进行了综述，在已有研究成果的基础上，提出了主要研究内容和关键问题。围绕水资源承载力评价问题，分析了其所依据的基本理论，包括可持续发展理论，系统理论，区域经济发展理论；水资源社会经济系统是由水资源、社会、经济和生态环境系统组成的多层次复杂巨系统，通过对系统及各子系统的组成、功能、特点及构成要素的分析，研究了各构成要素与水的关系，重点分析了各子系统的用水户组成；通过对水资源承载力定义、内涵与特征分析，研究了影响水资源承载力的主要影响因素，对水资源承载力各子系统构成指标进行了筛选，建立了水资源承载力评价指标体系。结合塔里木河流域水资源及其利用特点，参照全国水资源供需分析中的指标体系和一些关于水资源评价指标体系的研究成果，从众多因素中选取了耕地灌溉率，水资源利用率、水资源开发利用程度、供水模数、需水模数，生活用水定额、人均供水量和生态环境用水率8个主要因素作为评判因素。用变异系数法求解各指标权重。与评价指标体系相适应，构建了四种水资源承载力计算的模型系统，即模糊综合评判模型、可变模糊评价模型、模糊识别理论和极大熵原理，应用这四种模型对塔里木河流域水资源承载力进行评价分析。四种模型得出的评价结果一致。对塔里木河流域5地州综合评价表明：塔里木河流域的水资源承载能力综合评价为2 级，水资源开发利用程度已较高。其中，流域行政区中的巴州、阿克苏和喀什三个地州的水资源承载能力综合评价为2 级，不容乐观，因此，重点是要加强水资源管理，提高水资源利用率。而克州和和田地区两地州情况乐观一些，评价等级为1级，水资源可利用空间还比较大，可为今后的经济发展、环境保护提供一定水源。塔里木河流域的水资源开发利用，应由耗水型经济结构向节水型经济结构转变。同时，要加强水资源的综合管理，协调好上下游之间的关系，特别注重节约用水，以便科学、合理利用流域内有限的水资源。本论文结合塔里木河流域水资源承载力分析和流域目前管理存在的问题，有针对性地从水权制度的建立、政府宏观调控、水资源统一管理等方面提出了塔里木河流域水资源可持续利用与管理策略。Water resources are one of the crucial limiting factors in regional sustainable development, especially for the arid and semiarid areas. Among these issues in water resources planning and management, the scale of socio-economy that local water resources can support for some area without deteriorating environment is significant, which has become an urgent problem in arid and semiarid regions facing serious water scarcity and relevant environmental problems recently. As a principle index of water resources security, the measurement of water resources carrying capacity is an important guidance to the sustainable development of arid and semiarid areas. Based on the reviewed newly research results, this dissertation firstly present the main contents and key issues which should be resolved in the water resources development, and then focus on the issues of water resources carrying capacity.According to the water resources carrying capacity evaluation problems, the elemental theory were analyzed, which include sustainable development theory, system theory and regional economic development theory.The water resources-social economy system is a complex-huge system consisting of water resources system, social system, economic system and ecological environment system. According to the analysis of the system and its sub-systems, the relationship between the water resources and the system’s components, functions, characteristics were studied and the analysis of water users of sub-systems were emphasized.According to the analysis of definition, meaning and character of water resources carrying capacity, the mostly influencing factors were studied and the evaluation index system was established. Based on the evaluation indexes system of China and the situation of Tarim River Basin,we choose eight indexes from many indexes to evaluate water resources carrying capacity of Tarim River Basin,which include irrigation ratio of arable land the efficiency of water resources, degree of water resources exploitation and utilization,the water supply modulus,water demand modulus, quota of domestic water use, the per capita water supply and ecological water use ratio .The eight factors have a high influence on the water resources of Tarim River Basin, and play a great role in the water resources carrying capacity evaluation of the watershed. Their weights can be calculated by the variance coefficient method .In addition, we evaluate the water resources carrying capacity for the river by means of four methods including fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, variable fuzzy evaluation model, fuzzy identification theory and maximum entropy theory, and the results are generally identical. The results show that the evaluation grade of water resources carrying capacity in the Tarim River Basin is 2, and the current water exploitation and utilization have reached a relative high degree, and there is only a very limited remaining water carrying capacity. The evaluation grades of Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture , Aksu and Kashi Prefecture are 2, the current water exploitation and utilization have reached a relative high degree, and there is only a very limited remaining water carrying capacity. The comprehensive grade of Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture and Hotan is 1. It is urgent to adopt some fundamental measures to promote the water carrying capacity. Comparing with the actual situations of Tarim River Basin, the results indicate that the research of this paper is feasible. According to the evaluation results, it is urgent to adopt some fundamental measures to promote the water carrying capacity which include setting up water rights system, macroscopical control of government and integrated management of water resources. |
| 学科主题 | 水文地理学及水资源 |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 公开日期 | 2010-11-12 |
| 页码 | 共193页 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/8498]  |
| 专题 | 新疆生态与地理研究所_中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所(2010年以前数据) |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 孟丽红. 新疆塔里木河流域水资源承载力评价研究[D]. 中国科学院．新疆生态与地理研究所. 2009. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：新疆生态与地理研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。