Entropies of Negative Incomes, Pareto-Distributed Loss, and Financial Crises
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Gao JB(高剑波) ; Hu J; Mao X; Zhou M; Gurbaxani B; Lin J
|
| 刊名 | PLOS One
 |
| 出版日期 | 2011 |
| 卷号 | 6期号:10页码:e25053 |
| 通讯作者邮箱 | jbgao@pmbintelligence.com |
| 关键词 | Social Phase-Transitions Law Economics Markets |
| ISSN号 | 1932-6203 |
| 产权排序 | [Gao, Jianbo] PMB Intelligence LLC, W Lafayette, IN 47996 USA; [Gao, Jianbo] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mech, LNM, Beijing 100080, Peoples R China; [Gao, Jianbo] Wright State Univ, Dayton, OH 45435 USA; [Hu, Jing] Affymetrix Inc, Santa Clara, CA USA; [Mao, Xiang] Univ Florida, Dept Elect & Comp Engn, Gainesville, FL USA; [Zhou, Mi] Univ Florida, Fredric G Levin Coll Law, Gainesville, FL USA; [Gurbaxani, Brian] Georgia Inst Technol, Sch Elect & Comp Engn, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA; [Lin, Johnny] N Pk Univ, Dept Phys, Chicago, IL USA |
| 通讯作者 | Gao, JB (reprint author), PMB Intelligence LLC, W Lafayette, IN 47996 USA |
| 合作状况 | 国际 |
| 中文摘要 | Health monitoring of world economy is an important issue, especially in a time of profound economic difficulty world-wide. The most important aspect of health monitoring is to accurately predict economic downturns. To gain insights into how economic crises develop, we present two metrics, positive and negative income entropy and distribution analysis, to analyze the collective "spatial'' and temporal dynamics of companies in nine sectors of the world economy over a 19 year period from 1990-2008. These metrics provide accurate predictive skill with a very low false-positive rate in predicting downturns. The new metrics also provide evidence of phase transition-like behavior prior to the onset of recessions. Such a transition occurs when negative pretax incomes prior to or during economic recessions transition from a thin-tailed exponential distribution to the higher entropy Pareto distribution, and develop even heavier tails than those of the positive pretax incomes. These features propagate from the crisis initiating sector of the economy to other sectors. |
| 学科主题 | Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics |
| 分类号 | 二类/Q1 |
| 类目[WOS] | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
| 研究领域[WOS] | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| 关键词[WOS] | SOCIAL PHASE-TRANSITIONS ; LAW ; ECONOMICS ; MARKETS |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 资助信息 | This work is partially supported by the State Key Laboratory of Non-linear Mechanics (LNM), Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People's Republic of China. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. |
| 原文出处 | http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0025053 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000295943000009 |
| 公开日期 | 2012-04-01 |
| 源URL | [http://dspace.imech.ac.cn/handle/311007/44901]  |
| 专题 | 力学研究所_非线性力学国家重点实验室 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gao JB,Hu J,Mao X,et al. Entropies of Negative Incomes, Pareto-Distributed Loss, and Financial Crises[J]. PLOS One,2011,6(10):e25053. |
| APA | 高剑波,Hu J,Mao X,Zhou M,Gurbaxani B,&Lin J.(2011).Entropies of Negative Incomes, Pareto-Distributed Loss, and Financial Crises.PLOS One,6(10),e25053. |
| MLA | 高剑波,et al."Entropies of Negative Incomes, Pareto-Distributed Loss, and Financial Crises".PLOS One 6.10(2011):e25053. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：力学研究所
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