Simulation of decadal alpine permafrost distributions in the Qilian Mountains over past 50 years by using Logistic Regression Model
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhao, Shangmin(赵尚民) ; Cheng, WM ; Zhou, CH ; Chen, X ; Chen, J |
| 刊名 | COLD REGIONS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2012 |
| 卷号 | 73期号:0页码:32-40 |
| 关键词 | Alpine permafrost simulation Logistic regression model Qilian Mountains Topographic factors Meteorological factors |
| 通讯作者 | Cheng, WM |
| 英文摘要 | Based on a bench-mark distribution map of alpine permafrost, topographic factors and meteorological factors in every decade, the decadal distributions of alpine permafrost from 1960 to 2009 in the Qilian Mountains were simulated by using Logistic Regression Model (LM), and the overall accuracy of the simulation results was estimated to above 80%. Moreover, the changing conditions of alpine permafrost in the Qilian Mountains during each adjoining two decades, as well as over the past 50 years, had also been analyzed. The research results show: (1) LM simulation in this research not only decreases the dependency on the field survey data, but achieves dynamic simulation of alpine permafrost distribution; (2) the simulated areas of alpine permafrost in 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s are 10.7 x 10(4) km(2), 9.8 x 10(4) km(2), 10.0 x 10(4) km(2), 8.5 x 10(4) km(2) and 8.7 x 10(4) km(2) respectively. Hence, the distribution of alpine permafrost presents an overall degraded tendency with two slight fluctuations. |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 资助信息 | Chinese National Natural Science Fund Project 41171332 40830529 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 公开日期 | 2012-04-18 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/8506]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_研究生部 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhao, Shangmin,Cheng, WM,Zhou, CH,et al. Simulation of decadal alpine permafrost distributions in the Qilian Mountains over past 50 years by using Logistic Regression Model[J]. COLD REGIONS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,73(0):32-40. |
| APA | Zhao, Shangmin,Cheng, WM,Zhou, CH,Chen, X,&Chen, J.(2012).Simulation of decadal alpine permafrost distributions in the Qilian Mountains over past 50 years by using Logistic Regression Model.COLD REGIONS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,73(0),32-40. |
| MLA | Zhao, Shangmin,et al."Simulation of decadal alpine permafrost distributions in the Qilian Mountains over past 50 years by using Logistic Regression Model".COLD REGIONS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 73.0(2012):32-40. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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