The Chinese insurance market: Estimating its long-term growth and size
文献类型：SCI/SSCI论文
| 作者 | Zheng W. ; Liu Y. D. ; Dickinson G. |
| 发表日期 | 2008 |
| 关键词 | China's insurance industry mid- and long term growth potential world insurance industry premiums |
| 英文摘要 | The mid-term and long-term growth potential of China's insurance industry is a subject of significant interest to governments, business and academia. In this paper, the ''world insurance growth curve'' is used in conjunction with estimates of China's future GDP growth to estimate the growth and size of China's insurance industry for the period 2006-2020. There are clearly other factors - social, political, cultural, demographic and market structure - that also have an impact, but other empirical studies have shown that the key factor in the long term is growth and development of the overall economy. Assuming that China's GDP grows over that period at a rate of 6-9 percent per year, we conclude that the possible range of China's insurance industry growth rate would be 7.7-17.9 percent, with a more likely range of 9.8-14.8 percent. In the median scenario, the average annual real growth rate for China's insurance industry during the period 2006-2020 would be 12.3 percent. Thus, by the year 2020, the size of China's insurance market would be 5.7 times of that of 2005, and the overall insurance penetration would be 5.6 percent, with 4 percent for life insurance and 1.6 percent for non-life insurance. The growth rate of China's insurance industry during the period 2006-2020 would be almost double the world average and by 2020, China's share of the world insurance market would be about 4.0 percent. |
| 出处 | Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance-Issues and Practice |
| 卷 | 33 |
| 期 | 3 |
| 页 | 489-506 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| ISSN号 | 1018-5895 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/22249]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zheng W.,Liu Y. D.,Dickinson G.. The Chinese insurance market: Estimating its long-term growth and size. 2008. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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