Identification and categorization of climate change risks
文献类型：SCI/SSCI论文
| 作者 | Zhang Y. H. ; Wu S. H. ; Dai E. F. ; Liu D. W. ; Yin Y. H. |
| 发表日期 | 2008 |
| 关键词 | climate change risk identification risk categorization uncertainty degree of membership sea-level rise science malaria |
| 英文摘要 | The scientific evidence that climate is changing due to greenhouse gas emission is now incontestable, which may put many social, biological, and geophysical systems in the world at risk. In this paper, we first identified main risks induced from or aggravated by climate change. Then we categorized them applying a new risk categorization system brought forward by Renn in a framework of International Risk Governance Council. We proposed that "uncertainty" could be treated as the classification criteria. Based on this, we established a quantitative method with fuzzy set theory, in which "confidence" and "likelihood", the main quantitative terms for expressing uncertainties in IPCC, were used as the feature parameters to construct the fuzzy membership functions of four risk types. According to the maximum principle, most climate change risks identified were classified into the appropriate risk types. In the mean time, given that not all the quantitative terms are available, a qualitative approach was also adopted as a complementary classification method. Finally, we get the preliminary results of climate change risk categorization, which might lay the foundation for the future integrated risk management of climate change. |
| 出处 | Chinese Geographical Science |
| 卷 | 18 |
| 期 | 3 |
| 页 | 268-275 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| ISSN号 | 1002-0063 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/22332]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang Y. H.,Wu S. H.,Dai E. F.,et al. Identification and categorization of climate change risks. 2008. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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