Accuracy assessments and uncertainty analysis of spatially explicit modeling for land use/cover change and urbanization: A case in Beijing metropolitan area
文献类型：SCI/SSCI论文
| 作者 | Zhang J. E. ; Zhou Y. K. ; Li R. Q. ; Zhou Z. J. ; Zhang L. Q. ; Shi Q. D. ; Pan X. L. |
| 发表日期 | 2010 |
| 关键词 | spatially explicit modeling urbanization accuracy assessment uncertainty analysis scale effect Beijing metropolitan area cellular-automata categorical maps validation gis location kappa |
| 英文摘要 | Spatially explicit modeling plays a vital role in land use/cover change and urbanization research as well as resources management; however, current models lack proper validation and fail to incorporate uncertainty into the formulation of model predictions. Consequently, policy makers and the general public may develop opinions based on potentially misleading research, which fails to allow for truly informed decisions. Here we use an uncertainty strategy of spatially explicit modeling combined with the series statistic of Kappa index for location and quantity to estimate the uncertainty of future predications and to determine model accuracy. We take the Beijing metropolitan area as an example to demonstrate the uncertainty in extrapolations of predictive land use change and urban sprawl with spatially explicit modeling at multiple resolutions. The sensitivity of scale effects is also discussed. The results show that an improvement in specification of location is more helpful in increasing accuracy as compared to an improvement in the specification of quantity at fine spatial resolutions. However, the spatial scale has great effects on modeling accuracy and correct due to chance tends to increase as resolution becomes coarser. The results allow us to understand the uncertainty when using spatially explicit models for land-use change or urbanization estimates. |
| 出处 | Science China-Earth Sciences |
| 卷 | 53 |
| 期 | 2 |
| 页 | 173-180 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| ISSN号 | 1674-7313 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/22415]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang J. E.,Zhou Y. K.,Li R. Q.,et al. Accuracy assessments and uncertainty analysis of spatially explicit modeling for land use/cover change and urbanization: A case in Beijing metropolitan area. 2010. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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